S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1835.50 | 1828.00 |
| …would target | 1842.50 | 1835.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1820.75 | 1813.25 |
| …would target | 1814.25 | 1806.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS–DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Don’t even think about it.
Opening blip-up snaps back down into plunge.
Pre-open firming had been testing 1846.00 as resistance. Recovering it through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have made bouncing into yesterday’s range likely.
Quickly reversing back under 1846.00 effectively shut that door.
Testing 1840.00 as support produced another blip-up, which peaked within 4 minutes instead of within 3 minutes. But its reversal down has extended to sharply lower lows attacking 1817.00. Every bounce limit has held its 3-minute test.
The next lower objective is now just 2 points lower, a retest of October 2014’s “V” bottom low at 1815.00. Its test isn’t necessary to produce a bounce — 1-minute RSI is diverging positively, and there’s a Running Correction that can be tested up to 1835.00-1836.00.
Bounce, or not, nothing requires 1815.00 to hold. And there is a not much support nearby below it.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing from the 1829.25 overnight low up to 1843.00 had consolidated back down to 1835.00. Another bounce has probed 5 ticks above 1846.00 resistance.
Recovering 1846.00 through the open would likely extend to test ~1863.00 “higher prior lows” into yesterday’s range.
Back under 1840.00 through the open would target overnight lows either to resume the decline, or else to bounce from testing 1833.00 back above 1840.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording. (video may be uploading)
The First Trade… Oh, what a night.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Yet another gap up Tuesday once again returned all post-open gains, once again reversed into negative territory, and once again failed to recover through the close. The attempt to reject Selling from the 1907.50 overnight high persisted to exit the afternoon’s bias environment under 1865.00-1868.00, attacking 1856.00. Bouncing into the final hour extended up to 1882.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
China’s open immediately triggered a drop back toward Tuesday’s low. Sliding through it to 1851.00 extended to 1838.00 and eventually 1829.25. That’s down 40-43 points from Tuesday’s cash session and futures closes and finally touches August’s 1831.00 overnight low. A bounce to 1843.00 has been consolidating.
If, then…
Gaining traction yesterday would have allowed the decline to resume today despite an opening bounce. NOT gaining traction required extending the decline only by gapping down. The open is indicated to gap down. And this, immediately after the overdue Up/Down-Crash setup rejected yesterday’s up-crash opportunity. Capitulation, at last? Well, a hallmark of this three-week decline has been self-preservation, repeatedly attracting bullish bottom-fishers that continually refuel sellers. We’ll monitor for a Wreversal Wednesday that once again interferes with ripping off the band-aid, extending the pain. Capitulation, but not necessarily “at last.”
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1840.00 and 1846.00 would be increasingly likely to probe back into yesterday’s range up to 1863.00-1865.00. Exiting the open under 1834.25 would maintain momentum toward the next lower objective at October 2014’s 1813.00 low.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1886.00 | 1878.75 |
| …would target | 1892.25 | 1885.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1877.75 | 1870.50 |
| …would target | 1872.25 | 1865.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.