S&P
Post-open Review… Hope Springs springs another leak
Opening strength evaporates entirely.
The pre-open recovery to the 1928.50 overnight high was pierced up to 1929.00 through the open. That’s 15 points above Friday’s cash session close.
And it’s all optimism.
Any higher would have gotten a benefit of the doubt for renewing the bias-up. Instead, back under 1924.25 signaled momentum reversing down, falling to a fresh low at 1912.25.
Only momentarily overlapping negative territory has kept the door open to another bounce. In fact, an 11-point bounce just touched 1923.25. The eternal springing of hope is astonishing.
Having said that, this is a no-bias environment that rejected tests of both bias-up parameters, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters at 1907.00 and 1899.75.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The recovery’s 1928.50 high is being retested ahead of the open, after an interim dip to 1914.00. Still a little short of levels that would gain traction, so resuming the decline remains possible.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
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The First Trade… They drilled deep, but struck hope.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
A positive knee-jerk reaction attacking 1965.00 was triggered by Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report. But it pierced overnight highs only a little, and only momentarily. Already retracing into the 1947.00 open still tested both bias-up parameters, before rejecting them to put into play tests of both bias-down parameters. The morning bias environment’s new lows at 1924.50 were retraced into the noon hour, but Friday’s last half-hour still capitulated down to 1910.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Hope springs eternal, indeed. Sunday night’s open had plunged down to 1983.50 into China’s open. That was retraced entirely to greet Europe’s opens flat with Friday’s close. The overnight recovery attempt helped to mute the effects of Friday’s plunge, and the recovery turned positive up to 1928.50. Its reaction down to 1914.00 is still maintaining positive territory.
If, then…
The overnight low stopped 12 points short of its potential to 1881.00, which would be the objective on a retest. A retest of the overnight low does remain possible, and likely, so long as Friday afternoon’s 1938.50 bias environment high isn’t recovered. Attacking it up to 1933.50 would be the optimal corrective bounce, expending as much buying pressure as possible without even beginning to gain any traction for the effort. But already greeting the open anywhere near unchanged around 1912.00 would be likelier just to resume the decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1928.75 would be likely also to exceed the 1927.25 bias-up target at 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal next targeting 1933.50. Exiting the open under 1923.00 would be unlikely to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1912.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 1921.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Sunday night chaRTroom link
Globex trading will resume at 6:00pm ET. You can monitor it in the chaRTroom here. See you there!