S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday morning’s econ report has no track record of influencing price action. The noon hour’s Fed speaker does.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:40 PM ET
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Unfinished business below at 1921.00 was met. The delay was compensated by extending to 1912.00, probing it by only a couple of points when there was potential for 1907.00. Optimism?
The break under prior lows to satisfy 1921.00 waited until the last half-hour. Optimism?
Post-open action didn’t extend higher, but it did gap up. And that was after probing substantially into positive territory overnight, greeting the Payrolls report firming, and then reacting up to the number. Optimism.
Friday’s late break lower originated too late to confirm that optimism is dead. But it’s an ugly close, anyway. Other than China possibly bottoming already, it’s difficult to imagine Europe’s opens not immediately discounting what has developed since their close.
Join us for the Saturday Review to game the possible paths for Sunday night and Monday’s opens.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1928.75 | 1921.00 |
| …would target | 1935.00 | 1927.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1914.75 | 1907.00 |
| …would target | 1907.50 | 1899.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Horror movies are less suspenseful.
An hour of hovering just above this morning’s lows.
This morning’s test of its 1927.25 bias-down signal was retested as the afternoon’s bias environment was lapsing. It was being tested as the final hour was being entered. Only now is it being probed as the last half-hour begins.
Fresh lows now underway are targeting at least 1921.00. That’s the “unfinished business” left outstanding this morning at its bias-down target. And it’s being fulfilled now.
Every bit as likely — if not more so, as compensation for the delay — is to test 1912.00 or 1907.00. And by the way, Monday’s not looking very good. [We’ll talk more about that at tomorrow’s Saturday Review, 9:30am ET]
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having filled two gaps above, the corrective bounce was likely to fail. But gapping down Friday was too abrupt to be credible for being able to extend intraday. The consolidation is now free to resume the decline.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Friday filled the gap back to Wednesday’s close and its tested 1092.00 “lower prior highs”, which could be probed more deeply while “unfinished business above” remains outstanding.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s bounce back up to 14.35 resistance was late to begin and not a breakout, making it easier for gapping down Friday back under 14.10. There is no requirement to probe any lower while bottoming.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overnight high that was the flight-to-safety’s peak can still be retested up to 156-30 and form a durable top to the recent bounce. All the more so, since Friday’s knee-jerk reaction down to 154-14 after Payrolls was recovered up to 156-16.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another test of 33.55 resistance Friday was retraced back down toward Wednesday’s lows, still likely to probe under 32.00 before a recovery would be credible.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having probed recent highs intraday Thursday without closing higher, a close above recent highs Friday was required to avoid at least a corrective dip down to 2.14. Friday’s fresh highs up to 2.45 qualified as a breakout.