S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 8, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Employment report includes seasonal help for the holidays. So, an uptick won’t necessarily be enough to buttress the rate hike scenario.
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1973.25 | 1965.25 |
| …would target | 1978.50 | 1970.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1959.00 | 1951.00 |
| …would target | 1952.25 | 1944.25 |
| Signal status:BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Conditioning opportunity, dead ahead.
Another post-open bounce that isn’t likely durable.
The pre-open bounce’s post-open reaction down held 1945.00 to maintain its upside momentum targeting 1954.00-1956.50. The target’s pullback limit held, and the rally extended to 1961.00.
Its reaction down to almost 1951.00 lasted almost long enough to seal a top. But it was recovered by enough by 10:15 to marginalize sellers before extending the bounce to 1965.25-1966.50.
The target’s lower-end was just touched.
Back under 1959.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Reversing momentum back down could be limited to attacking the 1948.50 open. Any lower would start to signal fresh session lows and lower are in-play.
Meanwhile, the gap down’s post-open bounce has prevented conditioning market participants to be pessimistic. Not closing substantially higher will condition the market to sell gaps down — like the one being suggested for tomorrow by the active template.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The bounce from the 1931.00 overnight lows is now 5 hours old, and testing 1949.00. The attraction above up to 1954.00-1956.50 remains intact so long as 1943.50 now holds tests as support through the open. Much lower for much longer would start to signal the overnight decline has resumed already.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… The storm before the storm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o New! Omnistream
o Anymeeting backup
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down back under Monday’s low to 1977.00 was already recovering from lower lows overnight. The recovery extended through the morning back up to 1995.00 — almost convincingly. Equilibrium reversed the rally down to new lows under 1971.00. Regardless of being convincing, sellers had gained traction. And regardless of the decline gaining traction, the last hour rallied back up to 1984.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The last-hour’s rally extended hopefully into the Globex open, hesitating at 1991.00 ahead of China’s open. Ahh, China’s open. Its immediate plunge and immediate halt triggered a drop under Wednesday’s lows to 1961.00-1962.00. That 30-point drop eventually doubled down to 1931.00. Three hours later, price has firmed up to 1944.00.
If, then…
Extending yesterday’s initial 40-point decline intraday would have doubled it. Delaying it didn’t prevent it, and delaying it didn’t delay it for very long. Is the drop hurrying itself down to a bottom, or posturing itself to triple itself? Probably the latter — buyers are becoming increasingly conditioned to the new trend, and the weekend’s illiquidity is fast-approaching. The next lower objective is 1912.00 with room for noise down to 1907.00. Rallying first anyway would find resistance at 1954.00-1956.50. I have no active templates at this stage that contain a path to recovery before extending down sharply, presumably for the long-awaited duplication and magnification of August’s plunge. TGInyF (thank goodness it’s not yet Friday).
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1949.00 would be likely to extend its bounce up to 1954.00-1956.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1937.25 would be likely to resume the decline to fresh lows.