S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Ending the day with a whimper has made Wednesday likely to bang. Tuesday’s last half-hour firmed gradually into the 2008.00-2010.00 resistance range, which is equilibrium. Including overnight action, trending in either direction is likely to be reversed once in the opposite direction. Completing that sequence would then become vulnerable to a more durable trend gaining traction.
Wednesday’s open is likely to gap, but not very far away from Tuesday’s range — still within its magnetic attraction to pull price back into and through Tuesday’s range. Gapping much beyond Tuesday’s range could break free of its orbit to simply trend in that direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2021.50 | 2012.50 |
| …would target | 2027.00 | 2018.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2010.50 | 2001.50 |
| …would target | 2005.00 | 1996.00 |
| Signal status:BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Holding up, emphasis on holding.
Still hovering at resistance.
The last retest of 2010.00 eventually probed above it, and above this morning’s 2012.50 high, to test 2014.00.
Its reaction down held 2003.00 as support, and then bounced. Back to 2010.00.
Now entering the position-squaring window, and there is still little or nothing reliable about today’s setup. It does have a silver lining — ending the day without trending aggressively in either direction would be likely to trend aggressively tomorrow.
And trending aggressively tomorrow would likely begin by gapping open either above 2016.00 or under 1998.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday fulfilled the longstanding pullback targeting 1.0750-1.0785, Extended distribution during makes the leg less likely to be only a pullback, and likelier to extend down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1070.50 sell signal Monday allows a close above 1077.70 to gain traction and extend higher, although Tuesday did not. Closing under 1070.50 would target 1939.00-1941.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up was suspicious since Monday’s dip to Thursday’s gap had stopped optimistically short of actually filling the gap.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping already into Tuesday’s open extended down enough to confirm Monday’s close under 154-00 that signals momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s weak open contrasted with the headlines, and a morning surge above 38.00 was reversed into negative territory, which has extended to under 36.00. A pullback had this much room, but not much time before resuming the rally — if a rally is valid.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Opening lower ranged narrowly sideways Tuesday. The puside momentum hasn’t lapsed, but it should be resumed very to maintain upward momentum.
Mid-day Update… Second chances? (And third?)
Another deep pullback is recovering.
The open’s probe above 2010.00 had reacted down. A recovery retested 2010.00. And now another recovery is testing 2010.00. All following yesterday’s late surge to 2010.00.
This current bounce to 2010.00 comes after holding a test of the afternoon’s 1999.00 bias-down signal, which had narrowly avoided triggering. Actually, the bounce is 3 points above the bias-up signal. That’s “no-bias trending,” which requires being retraced, whether back down to the 2007.00 bias-up signal, or to the 1999.00 1:20 print.
Already, 2007.00 is being retraced. Back under 2004.00 would make 1999.00‘s test likely — and there’s no bullish reason in this pattern to retest 1999.00. There’s no requirement to test 1999.00, and back above 2010.75 would be credible for launching a rally leg.