S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 6, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The correlation of Wednesday’s ADP report to Friday’s payrolls is often controversial, but it does offer a snapshot or touchstone of the market’s sentiment toward employment ahead of Friday’s report. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes will be much more influential to price, first likely inhibiting volatility before reacting to the data.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
**FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2016.00 | 2007.00 |
| …would target | 2022.00 | 2013.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2008.00 | 1999.00 |
| …would target | 2002.50 | 1993.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Try, try again, and again.
Post-open surge reverses down, to a degree.
Recovering pre-open back to yesterday’s 2009.50 futures close had already made the open less predictable. Its surge to 2012.50, if maintained through the opening 15 minutes, would have made the 2010.00 bias-up signal likely to trigger. But 2012.50 was being retested at 9:45 to avoid offering any predictability.
Holding a test of the 2010.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 1999.00 bias-down signal. Finally, predictability! Then it was met, neutralizing its attraction.
Price suddenly reacted up sharply and substantially. Like yesterday’s late surge, no accumulation preceded it. And like yesterday’s late surge, it peaked upon testing 2009.50. So far.
This is still a no-bias environment, and 2010.00 is still this morning’s bias-up signal. Probing any higher would still be “no-bias trending” much before the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. Waiting patiently to probe above 2011.50 would be credible for extending the recovery.
Back under 2005.50 would start to signal this morning’s ranging was going to resolve down, probably targeting a probe under yesterday’s lows.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
[If you experienced audio and/or video difficulties during the pre-market Tou, then you’ll likely encounter the same difficulties intraday. Please describe the issue to me, and feel free to use the backup.]
Retracing yesterday’s late surge back to its 1994.75 buy signal did not equate to reversing it. Potential for filling the gap back to yesterday’s 2005.00 and 2009.00 closes is already being tested by another surge pre-open.
This recovery makes the post-open action less predictable, at least until the opening 15 minutes are halfway lapsed.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E952DF8283463E
The First Trade… Oops, it did it again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o New! Omnistream
o backup (launched AFTER the tour)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
* backup is launched AFTER the Tour
Through the prior close…
Yesterday’s last half-hour bore not even a passing resemblance to the rest of the session. The rest of the session was about selling — gapping down 35 points to 2000.00, extending down almost 20 points more to attack 1980.00, retracing a bounce from its 1997.00 peak down to 1984.00. Without any accumulation preceding it, yesterday’s last half-hour surged suddenly, 25 points into and out of the close. A buy signal finally triggered as the surge passed through 1994.75, reaching 2008.00-2010.00 into and out of the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late surge followed-through up to 2017.00. It was on the way to being retraced by midnight, and treading water into Europe’s opens. That was the last straw, triggering a slide attacking 1992.00 and then hovering around yesterday’s late 1994.75 buy signal up to 1998.00.
If, then…
2008.00-2010.00 would have been sold if tested initially at yesterday’s open. Testing it at yesterday’s close was similar, especially when originating so late and without prior accumulation. Sliding overnight hasn’t yet confirmed confirm this. The retracement must still reject yesterday’s late 1994.75 buy signal, which is more difficult since it was so productive. Filling the gaps back to yesterday’s 2005.00 and 2009.00 closes can’t yet be dismissed in even the most bearish scenario — similarly, their recovery could be bullish.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1989.00 would be unlikely to recover the 1993.50 bias-down target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 1999.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.