S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 5, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is devoid of any report with a track record of influencing price action. But the week gets busier…
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2005.25 | 1996.00 |
| …would target | 2010.50 | 2001.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1991.25 | 1982.00 |
| …would target | 1983.75 | 1974.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And then some.
Pre-open low fails to hold.
The choppy open has trended down, albeit with wide legs between its lower lows and lower highs. The 1995.00 low’s bounce to 2003.50 was retraced almost entirely before the open. Fresh lows down to 1990.50 reacted up to attack 2000.00, but that resolved down to 1988.50. Another bounce is now also failing.
Ultimately, the bias timing window has now lapsed into the bias environment. No prior high is recovered, let alone challenged. The bottoming potential has largely eroded.
One more line of defense is at 1987.00, and its success would be signaled by exiting the bias environment back above 1995.00. Otherwise, objectives under 1987.00 can be better measured in time than in price — like Wednesday morning, during which time a lot of damage can be done.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
We discussed the pre-open Complex pattern that would allow a fresh opening low to recover sharply this morning — if the fresh low and its recovery were obvious during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
Otherwise, bouncing too much first, or not already recovering, would open the door to much lower lows.
The recording is below. (The anymeeting back-up room is now available here.)
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E952DF83854A38
The First Trade… Crappy New Year!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o New! Omnistream
o Anymeeting backup
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down had extended to 2037.00 before bouncing. The bounce touched Thursday’s late lows around 2055.00 before returning to the morning’s lows. The final several minutes plunged to fresh lows attacking 2030.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up and extended higher to 2043.50. That barely attacked Friday’s late-afternoon highs. China began crashing, and even that relatively shallow bounce disappeared. Various countries aligning with either Iran or Saudi Arabia through embassy closings probably hasn’t helped. The balance of the night has been trended down relentlessly, recently touching 1995.00 and then bouncing to 2001.50. That’s basically a 40-point drop.
If, then…
We discussed air pockets Friday morning. The first one under 2030.00 became obvious during last year’s final minutes. The second air pocket under 2029.00 became obvious when China began crashing. The extension from there has leap-frogged several other “lower prior highs” to test one of the last “lower prior highs” remaining. And all of this is retracing in 2-3 days back to two-week old lows. Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. This was the case last weekend, after the morning followed-through shallowly. Exiting this morning’s open already bouncing from its 2-week old prior lows would suggest this leg isn’t extending, either. Otherwise, while the relentlessness might subside, the direction doesn’t have to reverse.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2008.00-2010.00 would suggest the overnight decline’s momentum had been absorbed. There is otherwise potential to 1991.00 before putting into play essentially a new leg, perhaps a crash leg greater than August’s.