S&P
Shiny new year, same old story.
Happy New Year!
You can monitor Sunday night’s Globex action in the Onstream app that I’ve been testing. It is always the same URL. All devices can access it, but do let me know ASAP if you encounter any difficulty. We’ll still run Anymeeting intraday as a backup during the transition.
As for the market, the Middle East has an escalated a conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. That’s likely to pump up Crude Oil prices. Shouldn’t that doesn’t lift ES, back above last year’s last 30-minute or 2-hour plunges? Almost having been joined at the hip during Crude Oil’s slide, this would be an inconvenient time to decouple.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Earnings are already being announced, but quarterly/annual season kicks off officially Monday with Alcoa (AA) after the close. Monday also offers another Fed speaker, only the second this year and since December’s rate hike. The market is examining their text closely for thinking on further rate hikes.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:40 PM ET
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2049.50 | 2042.50 |
| …would target | 2056.00 | 2049.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2038.00 | 2031.00 |
| …would target | 2032.25 | 2025.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET ECEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s PMI data doesn’t usually influence price action. But its relevance is enhanced by being released ahead of the ISM number, which does have a reliable track record for influencing price action. And reactions to pre-open reports are often duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
2:00 PM ET
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Well, that was a fun ride, good the last drop. The bounce from 2037.00 to almost 2055.00 was retraced and reversed to almost 2030.00. If that’s the product of day-end, week-end, and year-end low volume influences, then Monday’s open should gap up very much away from the late low. A post-close bounce back up to 2037.00 made that easier. Not gapping up on Monday, with volume expanding, would likely trend down a lot. An even funner ride!
Have a safe and happy New Year’s!
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
ilinc/Mitel* || Anymeeting MP4
*We’re ending ilinc/Mitel, so the recording access may not be available.