S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s bounce back up to last Tuesday’s highs was rejected in the same way, by gapping down. The pullback targeting 1.0750-1.0785 remains intact.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight to 1074.00 resistance was in-line with having stopped the decline’s momentum, but must still close above 1077.70 to signal momentum reversing up.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce helps to confirm that Monday’s dip to the base’s 61.8% retracement had held, but only closing above 14.10 would signal momentum reversing up.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having held Monday’s corrective bounce limit at 155-30, Tuesday’s reversal back under 154-30 was credible for launching a new downleg. Its break already extended to fresh lows at 153-08.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s pullback to the 36.75 buy signal had held, as confirmed by Tuesday’s gap up back above it attacking 38.00. Wednesday and Thursday’s breakout and consecutive confirmation still require at least an eventual third higher close.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher overnight to gap up Tuesday exceeded the 1.29 target by a dime, suggesting that the next higher objective at 1.50 is in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 2.28 as support.
Mid-day Update… Another leg?
Bias-up sets stage for yet another session surge.
Not just another upleg, but another surge. There were two overnight and one at the open up to 2069.00. Backing-and-filling down to 2064.00 has resolved up to 2070.00. This afternoon’s 2067.25 bias-up signal was triggered along the way.
The bias-up target isn’t much higher, around 2071.00. But the late break to fresh session highs suggests that sellers are being patient — and that’s strong-handed. Plunging 5-1/2 points before the noon hour is aggressive and impatient — and weak-handed.
Regardless of the potential upside, price action is still ranging around the opening surge’s 2069.00 peak. Breaking free of it won’t be easy, but it should be rewarded by a surge to fresh highs. Back under 2066.00 would suggest momentum is reversing down instead.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 30, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s weekly EIA report has become more influential to broader market action as Crude Oil’s potential bottom becomes more influential. The 7-year is starting to get far enough out on the yield curve that it’s auction might inhibit price action until done.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2075.00 | 2067.25 |
| …would target | 2079.00 | 2071.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2069.25 | 2061.50 |
| …would target | 2062.75 | 2055.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… It just gets better.
Post-open surge takes the last leg up.
The pre-open surge to 2063.75 tested a two-week old pivotal high that had to be exceeded if touched post-open. That was ensured by surging from the 2061.00 open to 2066.00.
Eking higher has now attacked 2069.00, the two-week old actual high. The resolution to its test is less relevant at this stage. But the pattern has been to stop pessimistically short of resistance before a corrective dip launches a new upleg.
A corrective dip back under 2066.00 could end at 2064.00 or 2061.50 — still well into positive territory and above the open. Much lower would have room to the 2055.00 area, as more of the corrective dip, without reversing the trend down.