S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 5-point pullback from touching Thursday’s 2059.75 high was recovered to fresh highs. Much higher fresh highs, at 2063.75. Now a two-week old pivotal high is being tested. Testing it post-open but not exceeding it would be likely to back-and-fill this morning back down to the 2055.00 area.
That’s not the bearish template. Backing-and-filling would help to siphon off excess optimism and to find buyers below. The bearish template would fail to hold the 2055.00 area as support, and the 2050.50 bias-up signal, while plunging into negative territory.
Trending sharply and relentlessly overnight leaves the door wide open to any near-term resolution.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkbvwf
The First Trade… Santa’s back in town.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
My, how quickly times change. The holiday break ended yesterday by trending down Sunday night from 2052.00 to almost 2040.00. Monday’s open was greeted by a bounce attacking the morning’s 2047.00 bias-down signal as resistance. It was too shallow to reverse the overnight trending, but high enough to refuel sellers. The drop extended through the morning to attack 2035.00. The balance of the session trended back up to close above the morning’s high, but too late and by too little to assure trending higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
Not signaling a trend reversal doesn’t prevent it. Firming to test 2051.00 and then 2052.00 retested Thursday’s close. Europe’s opens triggered a surge touching Thursday’s 2059.75 high. Now a pullback is attacking 2055.00.
If, then…
Cleanly recovering yesterday morning’s high through the close would have targeted the interim decline’s origin, which is Thursday’s high. Testing an objective not yet put it into-play can be more difficult to extend through it. Yesterday’s recovery attempt didn’t gain traction for its effort, so maintaining a gap up would be entirely credible for extending higher intraday.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2054.25 would be likely to trigger the 2050.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2059.00 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2056.25 bias-up target through 10:15.
Disregard the “order” email
Please disregard any strange emails you received earlier, as my marketing person loaded the wrong mailer… Sorry!
I’ve heard from several subscribers about the email referenced above, “Order Failed.” My message about it should have been clearer.
The email was sent to all subscribers, when it only should have been loaded in the mailer. There is no error, and I am very sorry for the confusion it caused.
See you in the morning!
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2058.75 | 2050.50 |
| …would target | 2064.25 | 2056.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2050.00 | 2042.00 |
| …would target | 2044.75 | 2036.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
(Please disregard any strange emails you received earlier, as my marketing person loaded the wrong mailer… Sorry!)
The afternoon’s bias environment wasn’t exited above the morning’s high, making further upside more difficult, if not unlikely. But buyers had barely tried to probe higher, so there wasn’t much failure deserving a bearish consequence. So, the balance of the session was contained within the afternoon bias environment’s range.
The afternoon bias environment had probed above the morning’s high, and failed. That was an unsuccessful effort. But it didn’t result in a probe under prior lows, or in any downleg. This keeps the door open to rallying Tuesday — unless sellers retake control immediately.
Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts Monday. So, gapping open in either direction would be credible for extending in that direction. Not gapping would be more difficult to extend before the afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhvptc
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc