S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A head & shoulders had formed off of the 2013.75 overnight high down to 2009.00. It has broken lower to its 100% extension at 2006.25, but still has potential to its 2004.50 161.8% and 2001.75 261.8% extensions. But the overnight pattern’s influence can overlap intraday action only through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And trending up through Friday afternoon’s 2014.25 high could point up for the morning, instead of down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcpyzx
The First Trade… Disaster averted?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Already down substantially to 2032.00 and 2025.00 through Thursday’s cash session and futures closes, Thursday night’s flat-to-lower ranging down to 2012.00 greeted Friday’s Quadruple Expiration open well off of Thursday’s 2073.00 highs. The session trended down to 1994.00 and 1991.00 through the cash session and futures closes. WedEX had inverted to bearish.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping up Sunday night to 1997.00-2001.00 ranged choppily flight-to-higher through Europe’s opens. A surge testing 2012.00 and attack on 2014.00 each were interrupted by dipping to 2009.00. Now another bounce attacking 2012.00 has formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern — just now breaking lower.
If, then…
Gapping up and trending up overnight — Is follow-through from Friday’s plunge hereby avoided? Three things to consider. 1) WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning, but not the period between them. Gapping up would still be vulnerable to trending down throughout the morning. That downtrending can bottom upon filling the gap back to Friday’s close when the bias environment begins lapsing. 2) Trending down into Friday’s close can be rejected by gapping up above Friday afternoon’s 2014.25 high to form a “session-long rally” setup. That would invalidate the WedEX. By the same token, rallying to the brink of session-long rally but not triggering would be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. And 3) exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment like gapping sharply is often a sentiment extreme… So, a morning-long drop back down to Friday’s lows is still likely, but that could form a durable bottom.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2012.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2014.75 bias-up target at 10:15, or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.75 would be likely to trigger the 2005.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2004.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link…
[FYI, OmniJoin’s new version recording process is untenable, taking much too long to download. I’ll find out Monday whether the original version’s instant recording format is still available. Meanwhile…]
CLICK HERE for the anymeeting link to view Globex in the chaRTroom.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2015.25 | 2005.25 |
| …would target | 2024.75 | 2014.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2002.00 | 1992.00 |
| …would target | 10996.00 | 1986.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
So, bearish WedEX was called onto the field after halftime, and ultimately controlled the 3rd quarter. It immediately drove price to a fresh session low at 2002.50, limited an afternoon bounce to 2014.50 to hold the noon hour highs, and then punished that effort with another new session low at 1998.50.
The 4th quarter performance should be fun.
That last drop to new lows satisfied the afternoon’s 2001.50 bias-down target that had been left outstanding. Its reaction up to “higher prior lows” was also reversed down to 1991.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvkmhs
I’ll send the Saturday Review link overnight. It starts at 9:30am ET.