S&P
Daily Spot… And a video!
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap. CLICK HERE FOR A RECORDED FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The dip targeting 1.0750-1.0785 didn’t really extend Friday, as the session was spent only ranging narrowly around Thursday’s lows.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s Descending Triangle broke higher instead of lower. The lowered 1061.50 buy signal was recovered, after probing it earlier to test the 1070.00 previous buy signal. A second consecutive higher close would launch an upleg. Back under 1057.00 would target new lows at 1038.50-1041.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having fulfilled the required third lower close at 13.69 Thursday, Friday’s surge recovered Wednesday’s gap up to test 14.10. Its recovery would signal a bottom is forming. Back above 14.35 would launch a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 155-29 corrective bounce target was exceeded by gapping up Friday to 156-24, which a bounce retested after filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. The sell signal is unchanged at 154-30.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fulfilling the required retest of Sunday night’s 34.50 low allowed a close above 35.45 to reverse momentum up. Its intraday test was rejected to fresh lows on the afternoon Rig Counts. The low held as support, but still needs a recover to prove a bottom is in.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday night’s drop essentially fulfilled its potential to test 1.67 and recovered to open testing 1.80. It proved to be an inside day, still testing 1.77. But back above 1.82 and 1.85 would now seal a bottom.
Pre-close View… Bearish WedEX discretely late to the party.
But it’s arrived. So far, in the least possible way.
This morning’s bias-down threatened to invert the bullish WedEX. A last ditch effort was made to avoid that, but it failed. Bearish WedEX, it is.
Immediately, the bias environment’s lapsing produced new session lows at 2001.50. The afternoon’s late bias-down environment was retraced up to 2014.50 at the last possible moment, but ultimately lapsed back at its 2008.00 bias-down signal.
Remember, the bearish WedEX is responsible Friday afternoon only for causing bounces to fail. That means retracing deeper than 61.8%. That happens to be 2007.00, which is being tested now.
In fact, 2007.00 is being overlapped considerably. Congestion could break either way, but usually only temporarily. So, a late bounce should still fail. If so, then WedEX won’t be invalidated. And Monday morning would be likelier to trend down aggressively (from its opening print).
Mid-day Update… And video for Crude, Gold & Silver.
Another recovery effort failed, albeit only by a drift lower.
Click here to view a late-morning overview we did of Crude Oil and Precious Metals – Gold & Silver (we’ll do frankincense and myrrh next week). Crude Oil was testing its bounce limit, which doesn’t now seem like it will be recovered by the close.
This morning’s bounce could have rejected the bias-down by recovering 2018.00. The bounce touched 2018.00, and trended down from there to 2001.50.
WedEX has inverted to bearish. Its only requirement on Friday is that bounces fail. Monday is the aggressive follow-through if Friday’s minimum requirement is fulfilled.
This afternoon’s 2008.00 bias-down signal was being overlapped within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its 2001.50 target was met already to within 1 point. It can be probed more thoroughly. Nothing prevents trending down under it, but that’s not required.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 21, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Chicago Fed survey is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2026.00 | 2016.00 |
| …would target | 2033.00 | 2023.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2018.00 | 2008.00 |
| …would target | 2011.50 | 2001.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.