S&P
Post-open Review… Done selling, or stick another fork in it?
Target me, supports held, last gasp recovery attempt in process.
The pre-open surge that attacked 2030.00 was reversed back under 2027.00 to greet the open at 2022.00. The initial extension hesitated above the 2015.25 bias-down signal, but never recovered.
Bias-down triggered late, its grace period invoked by a 7-1/2 point bounce to 2018.00. Refueled sellers quickly probed the 2008.75 bias-down target by 6 ticks.
Nothing requires the bias-down target to hold its test, nor prevents the decline from extending. But probing above 2011.00 (being tested now) would likely develop into an upleg.
A recovery is possible for having neutralized the attraction back down to the Fri-Mon Island’s 2008.00-2014.50 “lower prior highs.” Their complete recovery isn’t yet done. Having fulfilled the bias-down target, exiting the bias environment above the bias signal’s 2018.00 prior high would help to confirm momentum has reversed up.
And that would play right into the hands of a bullish WedEX. A WedEX that the morning’s bias-down signal has threatened to invert, if not rejected at the bias environment’s exit.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
We spent a lot of time discussing the potential bullishness of having neutralized the outstanding retest of the Fri-Mon Island’s 2008.00-2014.50 “lower prior highs.” We discussed reversing the two negative stimuli of falling Yen and Crude Oil .
Then the Tour ended while a break higher began testing 2027.00 resistance whose recovery could race higher through the open to isolate yesterday’s post-close selling and suggest a bullish WedEX remains intact. It’s now attacking the quite relevant 2030.00 pullback limit from yesterday.
Or, not… Post-open action won’t have much excuse for delaying extending higher, not unless the pre-open surge is only a head-fake — similar to last night’s Yen ation.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwbtvv
The First Trade… Cavalry coming (from a distance)
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Well, that’s interesting. The inverted morning-long rally signal had scared away buyers ahead of expiration. Through yesterday afternoon’s no-bias environment, the market had been ranging choppily sideways between the morning’s 2038.50 low and the afternoon’s 2050.50 bias-up signal. Pent-up buying pressure could have begun breaking higher within 10-15 minutes of the 2:30 bias environment exit but didn’t (which is when I had to leave early). The exit, itself, was drifting lower, so a rally was unlikely. Even the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window drifted. Then the last 5 minutes plunged to end the cash session at 2032.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s closing plunge barely paused until attacking 2022.00 through the Globex open. That extended to 2015.50 and then lower to 2012.00 — after an interim attack on 2030.00 triggered by the Yen’s overnight head-fake. The 2012.00 low is being retested now.
If, then…
Today’s bullish WedEX couldn’t ask for much more. So little more*, that not fulfilling it could be due to a massive afternoon meltdown. WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning. If Thursday morning’s slide helped to discount recent gains from expiration jockeying, then the overnight slide should be a windfall to the bullish WedEX driving price higher into and out of the weekend… *That “little more” which a bullish WedEX would still want for a Friday afternoon rally is lack of Friday morning follow-through. Lower highs centered around 2012.00 at 2008.00-2014.50 represent “lower prior highs” of the Fri-Mon Island that had required a retest. Exiting the morning’s bias environment back above that range would start to signal that sellers likely absorbed. Already rallying through the morning would not steal any energy from the bullish WedEX. However, trending down through the morning could invert the WedEX to bearish. And all that that entails.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2015.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2020.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting above 2030.00 would be likely to trigger the 2027.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2036.00 | 2027.00 |
| …would target | 2043.00 | 2034.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2024.25 | 2015.25 |
| …would target | 2017.75 | 2008.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Not really “post” market wrap, as we held it an hour early and I am away from the screens through the close…
The afternoon’s bias environment missed a great opportunity to rally. Its no-bias was honored by hovering up at the 2050.50 bias-up signal without trending above it. But a dip to 2045.00 had developed when the bias environment came within view of lapsing. And another dip attacking 2043.00 came after the bias environment started lapsing.
Rallying into Thursday’s close wasn’t necessary to resume the rally Friday, just helpful. Not resuming the decline Thursday is helpful, too — it’s being attempted down to 2041.00, but holding here would allow this little dip to be considered “ineffectual pessimism.” Bullish, from a contrarian perspective.
The proof either way will appear soon. The bullish WedEX wasn’t invalidated, so it is only at risk of being inverted by downtrending through Friday’s open. And that would likely take all upside off the table for awhile.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc