S&P
The First Trade… Two rights make a wrong.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped down to 2017.50, but ranged choppily and widely between 2011.00-2015.00 through the morning. Ultimately breaking lower into the noon hour to 2004.00 did react up to 2015.00 until the bias environment lapsing came within view. But that only reacted down yet again to 1998.50. Even that was extended down further to 1996.25 post-close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open stopped 3 ticks short of touching Friday’s 1996.25 post-close low. That was reversed immediately, and relentlessly, testing 2017,50 and 2019.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. A quick 10-point drop was recovered back above Friday afternoon’s 2015.00 high, but only momentarily. Soon it, too, was resolving down as Crude Oil broke under Friday’s lows. Now fresh lows have been probed down to 1991.25.
If, then…
Was the initial overnight action a roadmap for the open, or a last gasp before a very weak session? The two paths higher had developed somewhat overnight. The first path would momentarily probe slightly lower lows before reacting up sharply from realizing no new selling sponsorship was being attracted. The second path up would gap up above Friday afternoon’s 2015.00 high. The overnight rally apparently had expended too much energy too soon to maintain that bullish positioning. By the same token, the overnight rally created a lot of room to absorb another round of selling. And the open’s dip was rather shallow, to begin with. The paths higher can still be followed, by repeating the overnight action. But not already rallying out of the open would isolate the recovery and leave the intraday vulnerable to extending down sharply.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1988.00 would be likely also to not recover the 1990.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1998.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1995.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A new low close into the weekend is not impossible to recover from. But not immediately. Not durably. Not without doing more damage to the chart first. A bottom here would be considerable as unlikely as that seems. Meanwhile, the downleg seems vulnerable to extending since current news is so scary. Ever the contrarian.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsrpjb
I’ll send links overnight to the Saturday Review.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.00 | 2009.50 |
| …would target | 2024.75 | 2015.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2005.00 | 1995.50 |
| …would target | 1999.75 | 1990.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN. TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Fallen and trying to get up.
Late break lower about to meet position-squaring.
Firming from the noon hour’s exit had bounced 11 points to attack 2015.00. The bias environment exit was a little lower, back at the afternoon’s 2009.50 bias-down signal. That’s where the noon hour was entered, too.
It was similar in principle to this morning’s ranging. That was certainly wider, but it also rejected the support test by delaying a recovery. The bias environment exit delayed recovery from testing 2009.50. And it also produced a new downleg.
Now that setup’s 2000.25 target has been met and probed down to 1998.50. A reaction up to 2005.00 is trying to extend even 1 tick higher to confirm its return underway to 2009.50.
That’s taking awhile, and fresh lows can’t be dismissed, if only to retest the low’s oversold RSIs. And possibly to slide more sharply into the weekend.