S&P
Post-open Review… Bottom’s in.
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens today between 1:30-3:15 ET… back for the final hour..
The pre-open dip to 2049.75 held its test of yesterday morning’s lows, greeting the open at 2054.50. Recall that was a preliminary level noted in the First Trade blog post. Recovering it or not through the open would at least be predictive of the bias-down signal.
2058.25 was another preliminary level, and it was also tested during the opening 15 minutes. Its first reaction down was brief, held 2054.50, and reversed up sharply to 2069.00.
The opening surge’s template played out as much as it did yesterday. The only difference was its low’s timing, this time being pre-open instead of post-open. But their similarity is their Achilles heel — the setup should launch almost precisely at the opening tick.
This morning’s surge, unlike like yesterday’s, isn’t done. The 2074.25 bias-up target was met and held, but is now being probed to attack the 2080.50 renewed bias-up target. A pullback to 2065.00-2066.00 is possible, regardless of the potential for extending higher this afternoon, if not also because that upside potential would benefit from the refueling.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
SPECIAL NOTE: I’m away from the screens today between 1:30-3:15 ET… back for the final hour.
The pre-open bounce back up to 2062.00 resistance was retraced back down toward the 2052.25 overnight low. And then lower, now probing yesterday morning’s lows down to 2049.75.
The attraction to 2048.00 doesn’t require being touched since it’s not yet been put into play. Meanwhile, an opening rally template remains intact which is vulnerable to surging out of a gap down. Although 2048.00 would be cleaner, bouncing from a very early retest of the 2049.75 pre-open low could trend straight up into the bias timing window.
Otherwise, bias-down would get every benefit of the doubt if triggered. And 2048.00 would become more vulnerable to breaking sharply lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrczmyt
The First Trade… This way, and that.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down to 2057.50 tried extending. Twice, to 2051.50 and 2050.25, with an interim bounce to 2062.00. And that was just the first hour. A surge into positive territory didn’t extend, but its reaction down was supported by 2057.50. So were subsequent reactions down,interrupted by shallower and shallower probes above 2065.00. The close was testing 2062.00 as support.
Overnight action’s new info…
Overnight action has tried rallying, and declining, but neither is extending. First, a mirror image of Tuesday afternoon’s choppy ranging repeatedly attempted shallow probes above 2065.00. Its reactions back down were repeatedly supported by 2060.00. Until they weren’t. That’s when the last probe higher through Europe’s opens was reversed down 16 points from 2068.50 to 2052.25. A recovery attempt has tested 2062.00 as resistance.
If, then…
Yesterday’s productive selling was isolated to the morning, but the afternoon’s buying gained no traction. These elements create the potential for a recovery, which must be triggered by gapping up. The overnight dip doesn’t preclude a gap up — its reaction is now testing positive territory, and there is plenty of time to extend several more points before the open. But gapping down would be vulnerable to duplicating yesterday morning’s probe of fresh lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2056.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2054.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2069.50 would be likely to trigger the 2067.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2068.75 | 2067.50 |
| …would target | 2075.50 | 2074.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2058.00 | 2056.75 |
| …would target | 2052.75 | 2051.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s opening setup predicted the session’s choppiness. Actually, it predicted the morning’s choppiness. The afternoon’s narrower choppiness was a bonus.
Nevertheless, the session wasn’t bearish. It did gao down, twice probing fresh lows, and the entire first hour was resisted by the 2060.00 ultimate corrective attraction. Nevertheless, sellers never gained any traction.
The first hour’s range held as support through several afternoon tests. Downlegs were not the product of distribution, but consequences of failed rally legs. Ultimately 2060.00 held as support through the cash session close to avoid putting into play any lower objective. Probing under 2060.00 post-close wasn’t predictive.
Closing above 2065.00 and 2067.00 would have been bullish. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction on the day, so gapping open in either way Wednesday would be credible for extending in that direction. Up would be attracted to 2088.00. Down would next target 2048.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsrzxk
The new Omnijoin configuration should be available during the evening, and I’ll post its link in the chaRTroom if you want to try it then. Meanwhile, monitor overnight Globex trading at:
non-xp ilinc