S&P
Post-open Review… Walking it back.
Correcting Friday’s weak-handed upleg.
The origin of Friday afternoon’s rally leg had indicated that its sponsorship was weak-handed. That doesn’t prevent probing higher, but it does require its correction.
The minimum objective for a correction has been met, in the minimalist of ways. Potential to 2075.00 was attacked to within 1 tick.
The 2074.50 bias-down target has been met to within 3 ticks. It’s still an attraction, but won’t be considered “unfinished business” if never touched.
Meanwhile, the correction can extend down, whether to 2072.00, or to 2065.00 and potential also 2060.00. Exiting the bias environment back above its 2080.50 bias-down signal would suggest the correction had ended.
Late update: 2074.50 was just met. RSIs are diverging positively, but the corrective trend otherwise remains down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Ever since closing Friday without retracing its noon hour rally leg, this morning’s likeliest scenario has been to correct it. Gapping up today would have suggested otherwise, but overnight strength only probed Friday’s 2093.00 high up to 2095.50. And now that has been retraced back down to 2083.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwxwzj
The First Trade… Try harder.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s bullish reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report had triggered a 7-point surge to attack 2063.00. Its reaction into negative territory at 2046.50 was recovered to greet the open gapping up, extending higher 25 points through the morning to 2069.50. The legs were large, but the structure wasn’t much different than many Fridays, consolidating into the noon hour. Then a Draghi-headline triggered another surge that extended to 2093.00, settling around 2088.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging was transformed at Europe’s opens, surging to probe fresh highs at 2095.50. The one surge was retested, but not extended. Ranging there around Friday’s late 2093.00 high is still underway.
If, then…
The timing of Friday’s noon hour rally leg suggests that it was sponsored by weak hands. Extending higher depends upon gapping up by attracting new sponsorship. That’s not yet indicated, not by only probing Friday’s high and ranging around it. So, that leaves Friday afternoon’s rally vulnerable to a correction this morning — if not also to being fully retraced.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2095.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2092.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2083.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2078.25 would be likely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Does Friday’s rally have legs?
CLICK HERE to monitor overnight action in the chaRTroom. Will Friday afternoon’s extension of the morning’s rally be corrected, or will it extend higher Monday without delay. Clues should become available overnight. The Globex session begins at 6:00pm ET.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.75 | 2092.50 |
| …would target | 2099.25 | 2098.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2081.75 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2075.75 | 2074.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.