S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Friday’s rally finish correcting the week’s earlier plunge, so that the decline could resume? Or, were relevant levels recovered that invalidate the decline, and allow the rally to resume? A little of both, actually. Which is why this weekend’s Saturday Review will be focused on what immediate price action Monday can differentiate between the two paths, the bigger picture, and to review any chart requests you may have. I’ll send the meeting’s link that morning.
Friday’s action was reviewed with other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfysyhj
Pre-close View… Room for one more?
Probing fresh highs into the final hour.
Sound familiar? The 2082.00 bias-up target had been exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, but its 2088.00 renewed bias-up target held its test.That could describe this morning’s open.
Differing from this morning was the afternoon bias environment. Rather than extend higher anyway, it has ranged sideways between 2083.50-2088.50.
But now the bias environment is lapsing. And it’s lapsing at or above all prior timing window highs. That’s bullish, and usually resumes trending. Especially on Fridays, whose final hour is extremely vulnerably to squeezes.
Already, fresh highs are being probed up to 2091.25. And there’s room up to 2098.00. Probing fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would make 2098.00 even likelier. This much potential reward makes it compelling to be exposed to the potential for being whipsawed back under 2087.75.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s dip still has room down to 1.0770 as a normal correction of Thursday’s surge, without reversing the trend down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gold’s gap up from 1062.00 Friday was retested from 1071.00 after the payrolls report, but it was recovered and extended to test 1083.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm the trend has reversed up.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday above the 14.10 buy signal extended sharply higher intraday to test 14.60. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a new rally leg is underway.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s initial weakness stopped 4 ticks short of fully utilizing the room for extending Thursday’s plunge down to 151-08. Its reaction to payrolls reversed up sharply to test 154-00. That was a lot fast than anticipated, so a corrective dip to 152-18 wouldn’t be surprising before recovering 154-14 on the way to 156-12.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Official news from OPEC triggered a gap down that spent Friday ranging choppily around Wednesday’s lows. Holding the test and closing above Thursday’s 41.75 high would now launch a new rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging Friday followed Thursday’s EIA reaction which wasn’t greeted from a position of strength.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 7, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar isn’t really busy or influential, except for the late-morning Fed speaker who has a reputation for talking up the market.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1077.50 | 2076.25 |
| …would target | 2083.25 | 2082.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.25 | 2066.00 |
| …would target | 2062.25 | 2061.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.