S&P
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Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.25 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2099.75 | 2097.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.25 | 2082.50 |
| …would target | 2080.00 | 2077.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
It’s expiration, so it’s less predictive. But it’s still interesting to note that the afternoon’s sellers gained traction for their efforts. The bias environment exit was under the noon hour low, and the final hour entry was lower. It’s even more interesting in the context of a bearish WedEX.
A passive, late, barely bearish WedEX. Which wasn’t invalidated Friday afternoon, as price trended down — albeit gradually and stuck in positive territory. Nevertheless, that leaves the door open to trending down more steeply Monday morning.
That would suggest another detour is about to begin on the path to new highs. But will it last several days, or just several hours? That, and how deep it can dive, will be discussed in detail during this weekend’s Saturday Review… Its link will be sent later.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkmcyc
Daily Spot… Mixed energy.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s rally was denied a second consecutive higher confirming close. But Friday was still constructive to forming a bottom. Its gap down created an attraction back up to Thursday’s close, and its low filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1.0665 close. Closing back above the 1.0680 prior low would have been optimal, but almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength settled back intraday to range between the decline’s 1074.50-1082.00 target range, closing lower on the day but still potentially basing.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday night’s surge was retraced Friday back down to the range’s lower-end at 14.00.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Intraday weakness touched what had been support at 154-10 and held, but didn’t close positive, which left Thursday’s breakout unconfirmed.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initial weakness reacted up sharply intraday. Perhaps it helps to confirm that sellers aren’t being attracted to current levels. But it is also reminiscent of a last-minute risk premium for weekend geopolitical uncertainties. At least an obligatory probe of fresh lows is likely if Monday doesn’t immediately extend Friday’s bounce, for whatever reason.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Frideay fell on further consequences to not triggering a buy signal after Thursday’s EIA report. Now two consecutive closes under a multi-session range require there be at least an eventual third lower close before a recovery would be credible.
Pre-close View… Drifting is done.
Barely bearish, late, passive WedEX is only flickering.
Big things often come in little packages. The disproportionality of this is extreme.
Wednesday’s close was overlapping 2082.50 prior highs, leaving it to Thursday’s open for completion of the setep. Without rallying, the signal wasn’t bullish. Dipping immediately would have been bearish. Thursday’s open ranged narrowly sideways.
Bearish by default.
Its influence might not be responsible for this afternoon having probed fresh intraday lows. It’s probably not responsible for the downtrend underway since this morning’s bias signal triggered. And its influence isn’t undoubtedly responsible from above the 2082.50 prior highs — which is still 2-3 points lower.
But now the bias environment has begun lapsing. Volatility should start expanding. Trending down under 2082.50 would be credible for extending down through the close. Entering the final hour above 2089.25 would start to suggest the session will instead rally through the close.