S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 23, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Monday’s econ reports has a track record that is especially influential to price action. But each is high-profile, including the Chicago Fed survey that rarely registers in price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.00 | 2092.00 |
| …would target | 2100.50 | 2097.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.50 | 2083.75 |
| …would target | 2081.00 | 2078.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Burden of proof on sellers.
The rally has accomplished a lot.
A last-minute dip within 15 minutes of the cash session open touched the 2084.50 bias-up signal. Its reaction bounced to greet the open at fresh highs testing 2088.00. A consolidation was resolved by extending up to 2093.50.
The post-open consolidation contained a higher high and higher low to form trending. The opening 15 minutes trended up. Forming this setup on expiration is often predictive of the entire session. The 2092.00 bias-up target was exceeded (barely, in a reaction down from 2094.50) through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. And more than just probing Wednesday night’s 2089.25, it is being recovered through relevant timing windows.
The burden of proof is definitely on sellers.
Contradicting that is the bearish WedEX. It’s passive, triggered late, and only by default. So, its contradiction isn’t overwhelming. And RSIs that were overbought initially are now diverging negatively.
Back under 2091.00 would start to signal at least backing-and-filling, which could test yesterday’s “lower prior highs” around 2083.00 or lower. Otherwise, extending higher today remains possible.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight surge attacking 2086.00 had been retraced entirely back down to unchanged, at yesterday’s 2078.00 cash session close. Now that has been recovered to fresh highs testing 2087.00. All of which is still under Wednesday night’s 2088.00-2089.25 highs, and not indicated to gap above it. Probing above it intraday is still possible, but still vulnerable to reversing back down and then some.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbcpcj
The First Trade… Expiration, in more ways than one.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night had extended Tuesday’s rally by probing above the 2082.50 intraday high up to 2089.25. That was retraced entirely before the open, but never actually reversed down — that is, Thursday’s entire session ranged choppily around Wednesday’s 2080.50 close, between 2075.50-2083.50. Having held a test of the morning’s bias-up signal, an offsetting test of its 2072.00 bias-down signal was put into play, not invalidated, and left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday night’s weak open didn’t extend down, and instead firmed. That eventually became an aggressive surge attacking 2086.00 into Europe’s opens. Perhaps that was a little too aggressive, as it was retraced entirely back down to Thursday’s 2078.00 cash session close. Too aggressive, or perhaps only too early, as all but 1 tick of the surge has been recovered.
If, then…
Yesterday’s weak open helped to confirm that Thursday’s close had held prior highs, and did not break them. WedEX’s afternoon influence is passively bearish, so while momentum may have peaked, intraday noise can still probe higher temporarily. Whether attacking Thursday night’s high up to 2088.00, or probing it up to 2092.00, sliding or drifting lower into the weekend is likely. An exception would be for the signal to invert, which would begin by gapping open beyond a prior extreme — I’ll update on that later this morning.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2084.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2080.50 would be less likely to trigger bias-up.