S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Too much of a good thing? Monday afternoon’s rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour even higher. That represented 10 points of the rally. The final hour trended another 10 points to fulfill the intraday rally’s next higher objective at 2049.25.
Was that already enough reward for the afternoon traction? Trending higher overnight wouldn’t make it any more stable. The most bullish scenario would inject a little pessimism for a pullback to 2035.00. Then trying to extend higher Tuesday morning would be credible for trending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfjzfh
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… There’s more?
Marginalized sellers still being squeezed.
The noon hour had rallied up to 2033.00 Exiting the noon hour with a dip to 2029.00 recovering above 2030.50 was likely to marginalize sellers for the day. In fact, the 2034.50 bias-up target was being pierced up to 2036.00 at 1:20.
That didn’t necessarily renew the bias-up signal, but I gave it a benefit of the doubt. And the renewed bias-up target at 2041.25 was met as the bias environment began lapsing. Now its reaction down is recovering to fresh session highs at 2048.50.
Marginalized sellers, indeed.
More so, buyers gained traction for their effort. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high and the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s high. Probing higher highs is likely tomorrow morning — assuming too much ground wasn’t covered overnight, or into today’s close.
The ground covered already into today’s close is starting to be a little too much.
Back under 2041.00 would start to signal today’s rally was done, with a pullback targeting 2035.00. Any updated or new signal will depend on how much higher the rally runs, if at all.
Daily Spot… Crude is done being done.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Volatility in the wake of Friday’s tragedy didn’t extend the decline, further suggesting that a bottom is forming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially gapping up Sunday night was retraced back into the range. No further downside is required before launching a durable rally, which would be triggered by closing above 1089.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s gap up was largely retraced, but not reversed. A retest of last week’s low is likely to hold while in the process of forming a bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Sunday night attacked the 154-10 limit whose recovery would signal momentum reversing up. Unless exceeded immediately Tuesday, the corrective bounce has likely ended and a fresh low is in-play.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another fresh low Monday was accompanied by RSIs diverging positively while the 39.95-40.00 target area was attacked to within a dime. The intraday reaction up back above 42.00 is credible at least for being a temporary corrective rally.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.37 Monday helped to serve by proxy for not having closed above it Friday along with 2.31. Closing above 2.41 is the confirmation that a new rally leg is underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 17, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s CPI is high-profile and has a track record of influencing price action. The noon hour’s Fed speaker probably has the best chance to trigger volatility.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
12:35 PM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks
3:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Holding up.
Still overlapping overnight highs.
Holding the 2027.00 bias-up signal’s test didn’t require an offsetting test of the 2017.00 bias-down signal since that was touched during the open. There was room for noise down to 2017.00 nevertheless, but it was barely attacked to within 2 points.
Now the bias environment has lapsed, and 2027.00 is being retested as resistance. Recovering it through the bias environment lapsing would have resumed the overnight recovery. Absent that, its proxy would enter the noon hour above the morning’s 2030.00 highs.
Neither condition was met, although sellers haven’t retaken control.
Being the noon hour, fresh highs can be probed above 2030.00 without requiring further reward. And probing under 2023.00 can target fresh post open lows down to 2012.00 or lower. Anything in between is not predictive, except that delaying another upleg could easily default to at least a momentary fresh session low.