S&P
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2033.50 | 2029.00 |
| …would target | 2038.75 | 2034.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2024.50 | 2020.25 |
| …would target | 2019.75 | 2015.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bigger bounce butts up against bias-up.
Pre-open dip finds more buyers, and another peak.
The overnight recovery had attacked 2026.00. Structurally, it had tested the “higher prior lows” of Friday morning’s consolidation. That’s resistance, and it pushed back.
The pre-open reaction down came within 1 point of the 2012.00 bias-down target. The 2017.00 bias-down signal was recovered into and out of the open, and not by a little. The overnight high was probed up to 2030.00.
But the 2029.00 preliminary indication held its test through 10:15. This made the 2027.00 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger. And it did not trigger. But momentum hasn’t so much reversed down, as it has given way to choppy ranging centered around 2027.00.
The bias environment will be within view of lapsing in a half-hour. Meanwhile there is room for noise back down to the 2017.00 bias-down signal.
A fresh low must still break under 2012.00 to suggest a retest of the overnight lows. But greeting the bias environment lapsing by just ranging around 2027.00 would be vulnerable to resuming the rally well into the afternoon.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight recovery up to 2025.75 has reacted down pre-open to attack 2015.00 as support. That’s under Friday’s low, making 2012.00 likely to be tested post-open. If so, its resolution at 9:45 could dictate the balance of the morning, if not the entire session.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkjvpf
The First Trade… Standing up to terrorism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Friday to 2037.00 didn’t hesitate extending down to 2023.00. Consolidating there resolved up into a noon hour bounce back to the 2037.00 open. But that was Friday’s last and only bounce, as the balance of the session trended down, putting into play 2012.00, and potentially 2007.50. The final hour was spent piercing and probing the 2017.00 area.
Overnight action’s new info…
Headlines from Paris crossed in time to trigger another downleg to 2012.00. The weekend’s fuller revelations triggered a gap down Sunday to 2006.50. The opening bar also touched 1998.50, but the balance of the night trended back up. Europe’s opens were greeted from just under the 2017.00 area, and the reaction extended back into positive territory, up to 2024.50. Ranging back down to 2019.00 has also attacked 2026.00.
If, then…
Crass thought it may be, the market ultimately trades on only earnings and liquidity. Even then, much more so on the latter. The emotional reactions are discounted and the market moves on. That applies equally to Sunday night’s open, as to gapping up too much in reaction. The decline’s 2012.00 target hasn’t been met intraday, but still could be, especially if the open doesn’t recover resistance. Friday morning’s ~2023.00 “higher prior low” is natural resistance, and it is being tested. Opening back under Friday’s 2017.00 last-hour low could extend to retest the overnight low entirely.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2029.00 would be likely to trigger the 2027.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2020.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2013.50 would be likely to trigger the 2017.00 bias-down signal.
The market weighs in.
The horrible events in Paris happened after markets had closed. An impression is sure to be made, but it should be limited and temporary. Unless liquidity or earnings are threatened, markets tend not to be steered off-course by terror.
Those are very real possibilities, but they’re not currently relevant. The 2012.00 target of Friday’s decline was only attacked intraday to within 5 points, but it was met after the close as reports arrived. I’ll be comparing the effects to that level.
Wishing all the best to Paris and to Europe…
Monitor overnight Globex action at this link.