S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The two-week old pullback is really less than that. The first two sessions two weeks ago had rallied, and the next 2-3 sessions had retraced that. The newly-finished week didn’t trend down throughout, but it wasn’t much for counter-trending.
Only one prior low of the rally has been broken, which keeps the pullback corrective. Break another prior low, and the trend will have reversed down. How will that affect the potential to new highs? A lot. The upside was never a target, but the objective of a new upleg. A new downleg can take its place.
Having steepened the slope of the decline from the two-week old highs, a lot of selling pressure has now been expended without reversing the trend down. At least, not yet. There is room for a little more follow-through at or before Monday’s open. But not already rallying into the afternoon would undermine the recovery attempt.
Friday’s market wrap began early to encompass a bigger picture discussion. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvrpzy
REMINDER: No Saturday Review this weekend
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2032.00 | 2027.00 |
| …would target | 2038.00 | 2033.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2022.00 | 2017.00 |
| …would target | 2017.00 | 2012.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP AND BIAS-DOWN SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… And a special note.
NOTE: Market “Wrap” will begin early today at 3:45 so we can discuss the bigger picture (there is no Saturday Review this weekend).
The noon hour rallied. It was entered at 2031.00 and extended to within 1 tick of the afternoon’s 2037.00 bias-up target. But that was retraced entirely, and then some, to test the 2026.00 bias-down signal.
Overlapping 2026.00 within 3 minutes of 1:20 invoked the grace period, which held. But being a Friday, the “late no-bias” signal didn’t enjoy its normal influence. Multiple legs overlapping it probed lower and lower to 2023.00.
Now the bias environment has begun lapsing. Fresh lows are testing 2018.00. The next opportunity for reacting up sharply would be 2015.75. There is otherwise potential down to 2012.00.
Daily Spot… Crude Oil coming in.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s test of 1.0785 resistance didn’t extend higher Friday, and instead dipped back down to test Thursday’s 1.0725 low as support.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging at or under 1082.00 didn’t suggest the decline was extending, but still doesn’t signal momentum reversing up.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging entered the weekend still hovering at its recent trend lows instead of rejecting the trend, suggesting at least a fresh low intraday remains likely.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce extended to 153-21 resistance Friday where reversing back under 152-15 would now resume the decline, but recovering 154-10 would still signal a much bigger recovery underway.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows testing 40.35 can extend to its 39.95 target so long as 41.00 now holds as resistance.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up into the EIA report extended up through 2.31, but closing also above 2.37 is needed to launch a new rally leg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 16, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s only econ report is a Fed survey that is high-profile, but with no track record of influencing price action.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET