S&P
Mid-day Update… More to come?
Bouncing, still within the context of a correction.
Bouncing this morning from 2023.00 up to 2029.00 resolved down to 2021.25. But only briefly, as the dip was recover faster than it had developed. Attacking 2029.00 was consolidated. And then it broke higher.
The break higher targeted 2035.25. A 9-point surge is testing it up to 2036.75. While still well in negative territory.
Back under 2032.00 would signal the bounce had ended, probably reversing down to probe fresh session lows. But extending much higher first, through 2038.00, would start to suggest a bigger rally is underway.
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2037.00 | 2031.75 |
| …would target | 2042.00 | 2037.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2031.00 | 2026.00 |
| …would target | 2025.75 | 2020.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tiny exit door.
Race for the exit drives price sharply lower.
Not opening positive had already avoided one bullish setup. Opening within the 2034.50-2039.75 range still could have recovered the 2039.75 bias-down signal to avoid triggering. But remaining within the range made a probe under overnight lows likely.
Probing overnight lows still could have recovered both 2034.50-2039.75 bias parameters. But it had become a little late for that, and the bottom dropped out.
Dropping all the way through 10:15 fulfilled every bit of potential to the 2025.00 area, including the room for noise under it to 2023.25. The weekend’s impending illiquidity can accelerate afternoon intentions to fuel morning trends.
Oversold RSIs at the low doom any bounce to failure until the low’s retest. Not holding the low’s retest would next target 2012.00. If a bounce does form, it would benefit from future selling pressure having been accelerated into the morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
After testing the 2034.50 bias-down target, a bounce to 2038.50 greeted 8:30’s econ reports. Its reaction blipped-down to a fresh low at 2033.50 and back up again to a fresh high at 2040.00. Just opening in positive territory above 2041.00 and extending higher could isolate selling to the overnight window so the morning could rally throughout. The 2039.75 bias-down signal could be recovered, regardless, to marginalize sellers for the morning, if not the day. But not already rallying through 9:45 or 10:15 would still be vulnerable to resuming and extending the decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfcwht
The First Trade… Watch that last step.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to 2057.00 was the center of choppy ranging through the morning’s bias environment. When the window began lapsing, the decline extended. A noon hour bounce back up to 2057.00 was the last bit of optimism, as the balance of the cash session trended down to 2041.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Actually, the afternoon’s slide was still optimistic, since its likely target was 2039.75. Stopping optimistically short then made the next lower objective likelier. Ranging narrowly sideways overnight between 2040.00-2045.00 seems to have been even more optimism, since a sudden break lower quickly extended down to 2034.00.
If, then…
Meeting the 2034.50 target overnight creates a reversal setup unique to Fridays. Opening back in positive territory could get the best of both worlds — isolating the selling to overnight, while also leveraging the slingshot effect into an opening surge. Regardless of the opening print, not surging through the open would suggest the decline’s momentum remains intact. Then another Friday factor would become influential, as everyone rushes to be first through the exit ahead of weekend illiquidity. A renewed bias-down would essentially target the 2025.00 area.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2039.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2034.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2032.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.