S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2053.50 | 2048.50 |
| …would target | 2058.50 | 2053.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2044.75 | 2039.75 |
| …would target | 2039.50 | 2034.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The decline steepened during the afternoon. Opportunities to avoid extending the decline were ignored. Final action in the close never became capitulative, which isn’t bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Having finally broken free from testing the noon hour’s 2049.00 low, a 9-10 point probe was likely. That was met, but only barely, and only after the close. It’s more vulnerable to extending down than to reversing, next targeting 2034.50 and 2032.00. And they’re in-play without delay so long as bounces hold 2050.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
To view this recording: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbpkk
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Still trending.
Was a bottoming opportunity discarded?
I had described the Lunch Hour reversal setup, which isolates a probe under the morning’s low to the noon hour. Enter and exit the noon hour above the morning’s (~2054.00) low, rejecting an interim dip to fresh lows.
It might not be the low, but it is often the momentum low. If it’s the momentum low, then the noon hour’s low can be retested during the bias environment’s exit. But that, too, must be isolated and recovered into the final hour.
The noon hour’s low was retested. But the final hour wasn’t entered back above 2054.00. The noon hour low’s retest isn’t being rejected, not on a timely basis, making it less likely to have been a momentum low.
Sellers are being eerily patient. The noon hour’s 2049.00 low is still being overlapped, and the 2045.50 low of its retest hasn’t been probed since entering the final hour. The final hour vulnerability to a short-squeeze notwithstanding, lower lows are likely.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s surge is a credible first effort at rejecting the current lows. Closing above 1.0785 for two consecutive sessions would help to reverse momentum up.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning’s lows at 1073.00 fulfilled the decline’s outstanding 1074.50 objective. Reacting up almost instantly to 1089.00 at least reflects how much selling pressure had been neutralized. But closing above 1082.00 to actually begin sealing a bottom must still be confirmed.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having extended its drop while Gold was ranging, their roles were somewhat reversed Thursday morning. But now rallying simultaneously would confirm each other’s trend reversal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Thursday into the afternoon’s auction stopped short of reversing the trend up, leaving outstanding the likelihood for probing fresh lows.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Meeting the outstanding 43.00 target Wednesday didn’t prevent extending down Thursday well under 42.00, heading to 39.95 so long as bounces now hold any test of 42.75.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s consolidation under 2.31 ahead of Friday’s delayed EIA report doesn’t greet it from a position of strength. But a reaction up through both 2.31 and 2.37 would be credible for sealing a bottom and reversing the trend up.
Mid-day Update… Digging toward a bottom?
Fresh session lows attacking new support.
The first hour had ranged choppily between 2054.00-2060.00 before launching a surge. It was too late to be sponsored by weak hands. Too late, and too early.
Just at the prospect of surging I had warned already it would be only temporary. Peaking 1 point short of its potential at 2063.50, the surge was retraced back into the 2054.00-2060.00 range.
The consequence of the inappropriately-timed surge was new session low. And now a noon hour drop is testing 2049.00. That’s almost within 1 point of this afternoon’s 2047.75 bias-down target. And the target won’t be put into play if its 2054.00 bias-down signal is recovered at 1:20 (a bounce is probing it now by 1 point).
Meanwhile, another setup may be forming — the Lunch Hour reversal. It is triggered by isolating a fresh session extreme to this timing window. So, recovering noon’s 2056.00 print coming out of the noon hour would presumably reject the interim probe under the morning’s lows.
The Lunch Hour reversal may be today’s last opportunity to launch a rally. Even then, recovering 2056.00 would be allowed up to one retest of the noon hour’s low. Anything lower would point down a lot.