S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 13, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is both high-profile and influential. A pre-open and post-open report reflect the consumer, and a pre-open report reflects on producers. EIA Natty Gas was delayed a day for Wednesday’s holiday. And another Fed speaker takes the stage before the noon hour.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
11:45 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2066.50 | 2061.25 |
| …would target | 2072.00 | 2067.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2059.00 | 2054.00 |
| …would target | 2053.00 | 2047.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Insurmountable.
Absorbing the open’s gap down isn’t succeeding.
Testing 2055.25 indicated one more lower low likely at 2054.00. The open’s bounce to 2060.00 resolved down to 2054.00 and reacted up. But not back up to 2060.00 before retracing entirely. The next reaction up got a little higher, but still not back up to 2060.00 before retracing to another fresh low at 2053.25.
The bullish scenario would have reacted up just once from a fresh post-open low. Dipping again could still recover if rejected without delay. But the third dip was overkill –no longer accumulative and getting too close to 10:15/10:30 for a bullish signal by then.
None of which is necessarily bearish. It might be bearish, or it’s just not immediately bullish. Lower lows aren’t required, but rallying now during the bias-down environment would be suspicious.
The renewed bias-down target at 2056.75 was being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid doubly renewing the bias-down signal. That’s also not necessarily bullish or bearish. But it does suggest that even the most bearish scenario would bounce first — even if only to higher prior lows at 2065.00 or 2070.00. That said, there’s no bullish reason for a fresh low under 2053.245
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Another bounce was resolved in fresh session lows. The “unfinished business below” at Tuesday morning’s 2062.75 bias-down target was met, consolidating there. Today’s first Fed speaker then praised the economy and higher rates, triggering a slide to 2055.25. This area is essentially the renewed bias-down target if the 2062.75 bias-down target isn’t recovered through10:15. So, recovering from 2056.50 is an opportunity to prove the rate hike’s effect has been discounted for now. Otherwise, a new downleg is underway. A minefield of Fed speakers is scheduled today. We’ll be monitoring the market’s reaction for any sign that their warnings have been discounted.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpkytw
The First Trade… Can’t shake the attraction below.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open under 2082.00 was already rejecting the overnight rally to 2087.00. The rejection extended down to 2069.50. Bouncing through the noon hour to 2082.50 essentially duplicated the overnight rally, including its reaction down back to 2069.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Slightly lower lows tested 2068.00. That didn’t prevent bounces to 2075.00 and 2077.50, and they didn’t prevent dropping to fresh lows attacking 2065.00. Now another bounce is testing positive territory by attacking 2071.00.
If, then…
The overnight volatility is impressive. It continued yesterday’s pattern. Continuing yesterday’s pattern is the basis for suspecting that a fresh post-open low could be retraced, rejected and reversed to launch a new rally leg into the afternoon. So, until disproved by failing to recover from under Monday’s 2062.00 low through a relevant timing window, the pattern remains accumulative. The market doesn’t seem to be pursuing the alternative path higher which is to gap up — but that could change in a couple of hours, as it has changed from just several hours ago.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2066.75 would be likely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2072.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2076.00 would be likely to trigger the 2073.75 bias-up signal.