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Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.50 | 2079.50 |
| …would target | 2090.50 | 2084.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.00 | 2071.00 |
| …would target | 2070.50 | 2064.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s 2075.50 bias-down target had become “unfinished business below.” It was fulfilled going into the final hour, and held 1-2 more tests during the final hour. Then a last-minute plunge broke lower to 2070.00.
The last-minute plunge is not predictive, since it originated after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close (3:57 ET). The plunge was deep, but it was singular, and it was still overlapping 2075.50 instead of breaking it.
Retesting Thursday night’s 2094.75 high all but requires immediately rejecting Friday’s last-minute plunge Monday. Having fulfilled the rally’s 2088.00 objective without closing above it, probing above its resistance would be vulnerable to holding again. Not immediately rejecting Friday’s last-minute plunge could get November off to a rocky start.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbttft
I’ll send links to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.
Pre-close View… Deadline met.
Air pocket plunges to fresh session lows.
This afternoon’s 2084.50 bias-up signal was invalidated. It was productive after 1:20, all the way up to 2088.25. But the signal’s last relative low at 2082.50 was retraced as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. There is no unfinished business above.
The retracement was part of the air pocket described in the prior blog post. Triggered under the 2084.00 area, its follow-through has barely hesitated on the way to probing fresh session lows.
That probe has come within 2-3 ticks of fulfilling this morning’s “unfinished business below” at its 2075.50 bias-down target. Meanwhile, 1-minute RSI diverged positively. There is no unfinished business bellow.
Trending down to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could be very bearish for next week. Otherwise, drifting higher into the close would not have any predictive value.
Daily Spot… Pre-weekend jockeying.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction to Wednesday’s plunge extended higher Friday to attack 1.1080, which is the maximum bounce limit. The balance of the session trended back down, presumably to fulfill the required retest of Wednesday’s low.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s probe under 1150.00 support extended deeper into Friday’s open to eventually test the next lower support at 1138.50. Closing back above 1150.00 would now signal the decline had ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s breakout under the multi-session range wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Friday. That’s not a buy signal, but back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A second consecutive lower close Friday would have confirmed Thursday’s plunge had reversed the trend down. But the bounce didn’t recover what is now resistance at 156-18.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s retest of Thursday’s probe above 46.00 up to 46.75 had held intraday, keeping the bounce’s momentum vulnerable to being reversed as the decline resumes. Post-close action did probe higher, but any early selling pressure Monday would be credible for resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s close above 2.31 fulfilled the minimum requirement to suggest momentum may be reversing up. Extending above 2.37 Friday is still needed to confirm.