S&P
Mid-day Update… Missed connections.
Bias-down dissed, but not dismissed.
This morning’s 2080.50 bias-down signal triggered. The bias environment didn’t extend down any deeper than its pre-10:15 2077.50 low. Bouncing to 2080.50 at 1030 didn’t invalidate the bias-down
But the bias-down environment was never any more productive before it began lapsing, back at the 2080.50 signal. So, its 2075.50 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below,” which requires being tested eventually.
None of which has prevented an interim rally that triggered the 2084.50 bias-up signal. And that has extended to fresh session highs testing 2088.00. The 2090.75 bias-up target is in-play, but there may be an air pocket under the 2084.00 area that slides to fresh session lows.
This being a Friday, the last timing window is more vulnerable to trending. Entering the final hour above 2088.00 could attack the 2095.00 overnight highs into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 2, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three high-profile reports start the week, but only ISM has a reliable track record of influencing price action.
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.75 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2097.00 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.50 | 2079.25 |
| …would target | 2080.00 | 2073.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sleepwalking.
Overnight highs ignored by post-open action.
The pre-open reaction down from 2088.00 greeted the open back at yesterday morning’s 2084.50 high. Trending down to 2077.50 has triggered the 2080.50 bias-down signal, putting into play a test of the 2075.50 bias-down target.
All of which might be invalidated.
Recovering the 2080.50 bias-down signal through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled at 10:15, since whatever was signaled at 10:15 hasn’t yet been any more productive than before 10:15.
In fact, a bounce is now testing 2080.50. Still overlapping 2080.50 at 10:30 would not qualify as invalidating it. Back under 2079.00 would signal the bounce had failed, and bias-down it is. And while its target is near, its recovery would not be required.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
2088.00 is met. Probing above it overnight to 2094.75 has reacted down to 2083.50. A pre-open bounce tested 2088.00 as resistance. Tested, and retested it, while both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged negatively. The reaction down is testing 2084.25.
Quickly recovering through 2088.00 post-open could neutralize sellers, if that recovery wasn’t itself quickly rejected, duplicating the overnight pattern. But extending this pre-open dip any lower first would have limited time to recover, or else the morning could trend down relentlessly.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkjcyc