S&P
The First Trade… Rally meets another objective.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s sideways ranging consolidated Wednesday’s FOMC surge. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory was pessimistic, but not trending down made that “ineffectual pessimism.” The morning’s touch of 2084.50 resistance was probed momentarily by 2 points before the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
It didn’t take long for the rally’s 2088.00 objective to be met. Its resistance held for 90 minutes before extending higher to 2094.75 through midnight. The balance of the session has drifted back down to test yesterday’s highs as support at 2082.50.
If, then…
Probing new highs — new highs above the year’s earlier pre-crash highs — would require overcoming 2088.00. Not just probing it overnight or intraday, but closing above it. And then closing above it again on the second consecutive session. But if 2088.00 satisfies this rally, then regardless of how high it is probed overnight or intraday, the close should be back below it. And the rejection of probing above it should be acute, spending only nominal time attracting weak-handed buyers before reversing down sharply. The bearish scenario presumes it is weak-handed buyers who have been pushing price higher impatiently, and would sooner exit than defend against a reversal down. Without repeating the overnight test of 2088.00, then closing under yesterday’s 2073.00-2075.00 lows could signal its rejection already underway.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2077.00 would be likely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.75 | 2088.50 |
| …would target | 2099.75 | 2093.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.75 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2081.25 | 2075.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Market Wrap was held a half-hour early Thursday and I was unavailable at the close. The bias environment exit and final hour entry had not indicated any sponsorship was gaining traction. The vulnerability remained to the upside anyway, and the last hour rallied from 2079.00 to probe at least 2 points above the morning’s 2084.50 high. And to well within 2 points of the rally’s 2088.00 objective. Late rally and all but neutralizing a big attraction, without having gained traction. Friday should be fun.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvrxpw
[And here’s the link to Thursday’s pre-market Tour recording]
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… And an important notice.
Early Market Wrap at 3:30pm ET.
Today’s Market Wrap will be a half-hour early, before the close, at 3:30pm ET.
One prior recording link has finally arrived, if you’re still interested: Wednesday post-close Wrap. [Today’s pre-open Tour is still missing.)
The vulnerability remains up. Upside potential is outstanding to 2088.00. And sellers missed several opportunities to reverse momentum down.
But vulnerability to the upside is not a buy signal. Especially when sponsorship seems reluctant, as they are today. Both the bias environment exit and final hour entry were within the noon hour’s range. Any trending today should be obvious through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.
Daily Spot… Bonds and Gold join hands.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge from its 1.1100 bounce limit had dropped deeply to fulfill the minimum outstanding requirement. Gaping up Thursday and ranging exclusively in positive territory suggests as much, although a retest of Wednesday’s low would be needed to begin forming a bottom.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had become likely to extend to at least test 1150.00, which was done Thursday down to 1146.00. Closing back above 115.00 would signal the decline had ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction that plunged back down to 15.85 support extended down Thursday. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum had reversed down. Back above 15.85 would again target fresh highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Excessive optimism at Wednesday’s low was repeated at Thursday’s open, before plunging to the lowest levels in two weeks. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg is underway.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh bounce highs Thursday probed above 46.00 but did not trend up, which could have produced a second consecutive higher close that signals a bigger corrective bounce underway. Back under 45.00 would likely resume the decline.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline’s hesitation even held through Thursday’s EIA report. Through the report, but not necessarily through the day. A late dive probed fresh intraday lows at 2.25 before closing flat with Wednesday’s low. Closing back above 2.31 would start to signal the decline had ended.