S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 30, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Another central bank policy statement starts Friday’s high-profile, influential calendar. It ends with two Fed speakers. In between are the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence.
*BOJ policy statement
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*John Williams speaks
10:00 AM ET
*Esther George speaks
11:25 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.75 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2095.75 | 2089.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.00 | 2076.75 |
| …would target | 2078.25 | 2071.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Which is square-one?
Rallying out of the open. And, then, not.
The overnight pullback had been consolidating around this morning’s 2077.25 bias-down signal. The open printed it and began extending higher. Ultimately the 2084.50 bias-up signal was touched.
And held.
The no-bias signal put into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal. But both bias signals have been tested already. So, no offsetting test is required. So, the no-bias environment should at least be defined by either bias signal if tested.
The range can be invalidated in the next several minutes. Exceeding either bias signal through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled by not yet exceeding it at 10:15. The reaction down from 2084.50 has dropped to 2078.25, and extending under the 2077.25 bias-down signal at 10:30 would invalidate no-bias.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight pullback continues to consolidate around this morning’s 2077.25 bias-down signal, where it appears the open is being greeted. Triggering it wouldn’t be surprising, as the pullback could extend down further and still barely threaten the rally’s momentum. Otherwise, holding its test would put into play a test of the bias-up signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxphrc
The First Trade… Thin air again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rallying aggressively ahead of FOMC proved overly optimistic when the policy statement was released. A 6-point surge to 2079.00 suddenly became a 23-point plunge to 2056.00. But that was recovered, entirely, and then some — by a 30-point rally to 2085.50. This satisfied the outstanding higher close put into play by last week’s confirmed breakout.
Overnight action’s new info…
An overnight drift attacking 2073.00 is probing back under each of yesterday’s highs. While price is consolidating optimistically, that range’s 2071.50 lows has yet to be touched.
If, then…
Can the reaction down from yesterday’s surge be isolated to the overnight action? Rallying from a gap down, and probing a new trend extreme could be bullish — if the recovery were maintained. Rejecting the intraday recovery could be bearish by forming a Pivot Reversal. And if that new trend extreme were to visit the rally’s next higher objective at 2088.00, then a significant top would form. Otherwise, gapping down could extend lower this morning, and still be only a temporary correction.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2074.00 would be likely to trigger the 2077.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2068.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2070.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2080.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.