S&P
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.75 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2073.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.75 | 2060.25 |
| …would target | 2061.75 | 2055.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Loose puck.
Support holds, but not enough to reject a signal.
Sunday night’s action was contained within Friday’s non-trending range, warning that this morning would not be optimal or predictive. The preliminary 2059.75 level did hold a test, but not until after 9:45, so the 2063.50 bias-down signal wasn’t any more or less likely to trigger at 10:15.
Still overlapping the bias-down signal at 10:30 didn’t suffice as invalidating it. The next opportunity to invalidate the bias-down signal is at 11:30, exiting the bias environment back above the 2072.25 pre-10:15 high.
Already, a bounce is attacking 2066.00. If not extended above 2072.25 by 11:30, the 2058.50 bias-down target would become “unfinished business below.” Regardless, continue to be careful in this morning’s environment.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip has recovered back to Friday’s 2066.00 futures close, but still 5-6 ticks from Friday’s 2069.00 cash session closing equivalent. This doesn’t change there being little reliability in resolving one way or the other from opening within the range. Be careful not to force a trade.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfczvh
The First Trade… Getting its bearings.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Already firming after Thursday’s session-long rally, surging in reaction to China’s rate cuts created a peak at 2074.75. Reacting back down to 2056.75 bottomed when the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. That was still above Thursday’s highs. Rallying into the final hour attacked the pre-open high up to 2073.50..
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday last hour had softened into and out of the close to 2066.00. The deterioration resumed at Sunday night’s open, drifting down to 2061.00. A dip down to 2057.50 has reacted back up to 2064.00.
If, then…
Friday confirmed Thursday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is required. Reversing down immediately — as overnight action suggests is the intent — would be considered only a temporary correction. None of which may prove relevant today, since overnight weakness so far has been contained within Friday’s range as only noise.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2069.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2063.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2059.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2055.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2058.50 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal.
The chaRTroom is open.
Overnight trading on Globex is now open, and so is the chaRTroom.
We’re migrating this week to Webex. I’ll add its XP-friendly link to this post later tonight (and re-send both in the morning). Email me if you want me to notify you when it’s available.