S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Closing above 2055.00 has now put into play 2088.00. Friday afternoon’s buyers gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and by entering the final hour higher. And Thursday’s breakout above the multi-session trading range has now been confirmed by a second consecutive higher close – at least an eventual third higher close is required. None of which prevents an immediate pullback. They almost invite a pullback, to refuel the rally whose upside resolution is entrenched. Of course, gapping down enough could reject Friday’s gains altogether…
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfywmcp
REMINDER: Saturday Review starts at 9:30am ET. I’ll send links in the morning.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2078.75 | 2072.00 |
| …would target | 2085.50 | 2078.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2070.25 | 2063.50 |
| …would target | 2065.25 | 2058.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Upside target met.
Is there an opening for sellers?
Probing under support when it was too late to gain traction didn’t earn a reward. It deserved a punishment. Typically that’s a return to the support’s origin.
This morning’s probing under 2063.50 was recovered, and reversed back up to the drop’s 2071.50 origin. That was the post-open high. The 2074.50 pre-open high was attacked to within 1 point.
Another opportunity to reverse down today all but requires sliding back under 2065.00-2066.00 now. There’s no requirement to rally any higher today — just closing above 2055.00 puts into play 2088.00 — but not sliding would be vulnerable to ticking higher into the close.
Daily Spot… China rocks.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down even more sharply on China’s interest rate moves has now produced a second consecutive lower close confirming Thursday’s breakout. Bounce potential is still 1.1180, if not 1.1140. But at least an eventual third lower close is now required.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging in reaction to China’s moves sent price through 1173.50. But 1180.00 was only attacked and not recovered before optimism disappeared. The 1165.50 pullback limit was tested down to 1160.00. Immediately recovering 1165.50 would be likely to extend higher. The pullback is otherwise likely to test 1155.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday and extending to 16.10 was reversed back into negative territory at 15.70. That was early and the balance of the session ranged narrowly around 15.85 to keep alive potential for launching a new upleg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap down to fresh lows testing 156-16 compensated for the delay of Thursday’s redundant test of the bonce limit. But a second consecutive lower close confirming the trend change is still required.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not terribly dissimilar to Thursday, Friday initially firmed in reaction to China’s economic nudging, but still reversed down to extend the trend reversal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday precluded there being an immediate durable recovery. The open’s gap must still be filled after bouncing back up to “higher prior lows,” assuming the drop even tries to end. Which trending down after the open didn’t suggest.
Mid-day Update… Sellers sorta marginalized.
Ill-timed dips trap shorts.
Post-open bounces tried to resume the pre-open rally, but lower and lower highs kept returning to 2063.50 support. Its tests were mostly overlapped, or only briefly probed. But after holding two tests before 10:15, it had become too late for a reliable break lower.
Being unreliable didn’t preclude there being a break lower. It just made a break lower likely to recover. And being likely to recover didn’t limit how deep that hypothetical break could first probe.
7 points, actually.
The hypothetical late, temporary break probed 7 points under 2063.50 to attack 2056.50. It would have been credible for extending down — being a Friday, and being unusual action. Delaying the break would have been likelier to gain traction, but the premature break was likely to fail.
The consequence for an inappropriately timed break — which fails — is to retest the original leg’s origin. That would be a fresh session high around 2072.00. The afternoon’s no-bias environment is now ranging around its 2066.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the bias environment back under 2065.00 would be vulnerable to sliding anyway.