S&P
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/17/15) …End of a correction?
From its sudden start and its steep slope to its relentless progression, last week’s recovery from its initial dip had all the markings of being expiration-related. It should be obvious Monday afternoon whether that’s correct. If not, then the rally still has room before no longer considering it as only a temporary correction. Those topics and more are covered in this week’s Saturday Review, recorded below.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SPX, AMZN, MSFT, V, TWTR, MCD, GOOGL
10/17/2015 09:32:04 David B: good morning
10/17/2015 09:32:19 Mark Glezer: gm
10/17/2015 09:48:57 David B: chinese data on monday GDP,retail sales,and industrial data could have been the catalyst for friday afternoon or sets the trend for monday?
10/17/2015 09:49:18 Mark Glezer: seems like buyer dodged a big bullet perhaps because sellers were too impatient Fri & the move originated in no-bias well ahead of 2:30 & sellers will have a much harder job on Mon?
10/17/2015 09:49:23 SM: Does the bullish scenario you desribe (failing to successfully reject the bullish bias during expiraton) also negate the bearish context from which this has begun?
10/17/2015 10:00:44 steve: if the market does pullback below 1980 do we then need for new context or should the market continue to fall?
10/17/2015 10:03:46 Mark Glezer: indexes – anything interesting?
10/17/2015 10:04:24 steve: small caps underperforming
10/17/2015 10:06:44 David B: AMZN,MSFT
10/17/2015 10:07:22 ljr: stocks: v, twtr,
10/17/2015 10:08:31 SM: larger market question: is there any emerging evidence to sugges that the ‘biggest fish’ is no longer oriented bearishly?
10/17/2015 10:09:16 ljr: sorry meant: visa
10/17/2015 10:11:00 David B: is amzn and msft position of strength for earnings?
10/17/2015 10:12:05 David B: thursday
10/17/2015 10:14:42 SM: you/re mixing up the questions.
10/17/2015 10:16:52 David B: MCD,GOOGL
10/17/2015 10:19:18 David B: earnings thursday for MCD
10/17/2015 10:21:23 David B: googl on thursday
10/17/2015 10:26:28 SM: y thx
10/17/2015 10:26:49 Mark Glezer: thx much
10/17/2015 10:26:53 David B: thanks
See you soon!
Did yesterday’s rally put into play higher targets? Will the expiration-related buying attract more sponsorship before it peters out? Will someone discover the vial of strychnine in Uncle Griffith’s utensil drawer before the guests sit down for dinner?
For answers to (most of) these questions, and to others, join us at 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. We’ll discuss the bigger picture, current , and review any stock chart requests:
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2034.00 | 2026.50 |
| …would target | 2039.25 | 2031.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2025.50 | 2018.00 |
| …would target | 2020.50 | 2013.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The bearish WedEX was influential Friday until the final hour. That’s when the last relative high at 2023.00 was exceeded, and its recovery was maintained through the close. The close extended up to 2026.00.
Absorbing the fresh high back under 2023.00 at Friday’s close would have maintained the bearish WedEX’s potential. Now it’s too late for that. Absorbing Friday’s late surge must be signaled by Monday immediately breaking back under bias environment’s 2012.75 low. At least, back under the noon hour’s 2015.75 low.
Maintaining a gap open under the bias environment’s 2012.75 low would also form a “session-long decline” setup. The bearish WedEX would likely compound the reversal, targeting the week’s 1982.50 low. Any shallower opening weakness would more likely recover and resume the rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkcbwz
REMINDER: This weekend’s Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET. We’ll discuss the bigger picture targets for extending higher and the setups for reversing down. We’ll also review any stock chart requests:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Bearish WedEX?
Two bearish indicators being overcome.
The afternoon’s fresh lows were probed during a no-bias environment, under its 2016.00 bias-down signal. Any day other than expiration would have required retracing up to 2016.00. Nevertheless, it was recovered, and exceeded to fresh session highs at 2024.75.
The session’s opening 15 minutes had trended down throughout suggesting downtrending throughout the day. Everything except the last upleg fulfilled the open’s setup. Meanwhile, the session’s bearish WedEX couldn’t sustain the downtrend. But its potential would remain alive — albeit on life support — by closing at or under 2023.00.
The bearish WedEX’s should influence Monday morning very aggressively, or else not at all. Not already trending down at Monday’s open would be likely to extend higher through the morning.