S&P
Daily Spot… Setting up for big moves,
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s ranging around Thursday’s 1.1370 lows still didn’t reverse the trend down, and allows the rally to resume at any time.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down overnight into Friday’s open thoroughly tested the 1179.50 pullback limit, which keeps alive potential for a fresh high that fulfills the 1195.50 target.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping again in sympathy with Gold has still not reversed the trend down. Extending higher modestly would be toppy, while an aggressive probe of fresh highs would be much more reliable for extending higher.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s “inside day” didn’t reverse the week’s bounce to resistance, but neither was the bounce confirmed. The sell signal remains at 158-04.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday to test 47.40 was recovered after an intraday dip, but it stopped short of rejecting the two prior sessions’ pessimism. Back under 46.10 would signal a new downleg underway. The bounce can otherwise extend up to 49.05.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down didn’t hold 2.44 Friday, and extended down to the two-week old prior low at 2.41. Any immediate bounce here would be considered only obligatory and temporary and likely to fail.
Mid-day Update… Good to the last drop.
Hovering in positive territory.
This morning’s choppy ranging wasn’t much different from the overnight action. Neither was it very rewarding to yesterday’s buyers for having gained traction. But fresh highs were probed, and positive territory was maintained throughout the morning.
It’s time for the bearish influences to make themselves apparent.
A bearish WedEX has been waiting in the wings, salivating at the rising prices. Its influence this afternoon need not be dramatic, and can simply force rally efforts to fail. This morning’s opening 15 minutes trended down, which also need not have a dramatic influence, but suggests the afternoon will print lower lows.
Between the two bearish influences, a flat-to-lower afternoon is likelier. An aggressive drop is possible. Yesterday’s 2017.00 cash session high is now being probed again. Back above 2020.50 would suggest fresh highs will be probed regardless.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 19, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday is the 28th Anniversary of 1987”s “Black Monday” stock market crash. Exciting. The day’s economic calendar is even less exciting, as is the entire week. Monday’s Fed speaker is a highlight.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2030.00 | 2022.50 |
| …would target | 2035.50 | 2028.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2023.50 | 2016.00 |
| …would target | 2018.50 | 2011.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Skeptical.
Is the rally really ending without a fight?
Yesterday afternoon’s rally gained traction for having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and for then entering the final hour even higher. For that reason alone — at least, since that traction wasn’t invalidated through the open — I’m still expecting this morning to probe fresh highs.
Probe fresh highs… again. The open already probed fresh highs, surging to within 1 tick of 2024.00. But that doesn’t qualify as a reward. And if it had, then a deeper downdraft would be obvious by now.
The only downdraft was a brief probe under yesterday’s 2017.00 cash session high. It’s trying to recover, but still being overlapped. The rubber band was stretched, but it’s not exactly “snapping” back up.
Back above 2018.50 would signal and above 2020.50 confirm that a probe of fresh session highs above 2024.00 is underway. This could negate the morning’s “late no-bias” signal that is otherwise targeting an offsetting test of the 2011.00 bias-down signal.
This afternoon could be a different story. I think this afternoon will be a different story — with the bearish WedEX now accompanied by the opening 15 minutes of volatility having trended down. But afternoon bearishness would be difficult if there is any attraction outstanding above.