S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Down, but not out. Not even down.
Overnight choppiness is bouncing from 2014.00 to greet the open back above yesterday’s 2017.00 cash session high. The burden of proof is on sellers. It’s not a particularly difficult burden, but they’ve failed earlier attempts to regain control. So, extending or probing higher this morning remains likely, unless the opening 15 minutes of volatility were to trend down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcsysx
The First Trade… Tale of two expirations.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up grudgingly triggered its 1995.50 bias-up signal and grudgingly fulfilled its 1999.50 bias-up target. Exiting the bias environment back under its fulfilled bias-up signal down to 1989.50 indicated that grudging sponsorship was gone. But sellers proved to be more grudging than the morning’s buyers, and could not be attracted at all. So, a much more willing round of buying emerged, taking the noon hour to fresh session highs. The afternoon’s bias-up environment extended the rally to fulfill its 2007.50 bias-up target. And the rally extended through the cash session close to touch its ultimate objective at 2019.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
An early thrust higher tried to reignite the afternoon’s magic, and did touch 2023.00. But soon began reversing down to 2016.00. Bouncing back up to 2022.00 has been reversed down to lower lows testing 2014.00.
If, then…
Trading choppily overnight is proof that yesterday afternoon’s rally was a function of today’s expiration. That’s interesting, since it fulfilled a significant upside objective at 2019.50 and WedEX is forecasting a bearish afternoon. Meanwhile, this being expiration, trending through the opening 15 minutes of volatility can forecast trending throughout the day. And this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2019.50 would be likely to maintain that recovery through 10:15 to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2016.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2019.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2007.50 would be likely to trigger the 2011.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2027.00 | 2019.50 |
| …would target | 2032.75 | 2025.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2018.50 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2013.25 | 2005.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
I began noting during the noon hour that if extending the rally through the noon hour wasn’t rejected, then its 2007.50 renewed bias-up target would be only a formality. Retesting the 2014.00 prior high would be only a formality. The market was on a mission to neutralize all upside attractions — probably including 2019.50 — and fast.
Fast is how it was done. Fast is how it had to be done. Wednesday’s decline had gained traction, which was bearish, so the only way to reject it was by gapping up Thursday. Similarly, exiting Thursday morning’s bias environment back under its fulfilled bias-up signal was bearish, so it could be rejected only aggressively, too.
Rallying relentlessly throughout Thursday’s noon hour was as aggressive as it gets. Extending higher relentlessly throughout Thursday afternoon’s bias environment maintained the aggression. Like the proverbial shark needing to continue moving to avoid rolling over, like Satchel Paige saying “Don’t look back, you don’t want to know what might be gaining on you,” Thursday’s rally can’t afford to hesitate if it intends to extend higher.
And since it gained traction — the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high and the final hour was entered even higher — the only way to reject it immediately is by gapping down under a prior timing window’s low. That’s at least 2000.00, if not lower.
Details and mention of the WedEX and other markets coverage are discussed in the market Wrap, which was held early due to a scheduling conflict. Its recording is here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvymh
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Daily Spot… Gold arching.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down extended intraday to test the three prior sessions’ 1.1370 support. More backing-and-filling can’t be precluded before resuming the rally to its 1.1595 target.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending up overnight and gapping up Thursday to within $4 of the target at 1191.70 reacted down into negative territory to 1174.00. Recovering nearly all of the post-open slide keeps alive the target, although I’m lowering it 20 cents to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite having ignored Gold’s rally, Silver spiked down in tandem with Gold at Thursday’s open. But, like Gold, it was recovered entirely, relatively more so. Nevertheless, not extending higher aggressively would be unlikely to maintain any shallower gains.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs touched the 159-22 room for noise above the 159-13. Trending back down from there at Thursday’s open then spent the balance of the session repeatedly testing the 158-23 gap that had attracted price higher. Back under 158-04 would signal momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday did not exploit Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” The morning’s EIA report kept price under pressure ranging at or under 46.00 for another ineffectual pessimism session.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday to a fresh recovery high at 2.58 was reversed down hard by the EIA report — back to and through the 2.48 “lower prior highs.” There’s still room down to 2.43 without launching a new downleg. Back above 2.52 would put into play a test of 2.67.