S&P
Pre-close View… SPECIAL NOTE.
I’m unavailable the last half-hour today.
WE WILL HAVE MARKET WRAP EARLY AT 3:15 ET.
This afternoon’s 1995.50 bias-up signal was recovered during the noon hour. Its 2002.00 bias-up target was recovered at the 1:20 bias timing window. That renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2007.50.
2007.50 was just tested. Exiting the bias environment above it would next target 2011.00-2012.00. But that would likely be only a formality on the path up to 2019.50.
This recovery can still be reversed today. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 or entering the final hour under 2002.00 would at least target 1995.50. Failing to hold above this morning’s ~2000.00 highs would suggest momentum is reversing down.
The origin of this rally has left behind Wednesday’s bearish close, and also this morning’s bearish bias environment exit. It’s clearly on a mission to neutralize attractions above. But the mission’s origin is not solid, so we know it’s only temporary, albeit currently in command.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 16, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two of Friday’s reports are reliable for influencing price action. Only one is high-profile, but both are released simultaneously and post-open, two elements that make them even likelier either to reverse or to accelerate any initial trending.
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Best efforts.
Has the third consecutive morning surge rolled over, too?.
Tuesday’s gap down immediately launched a rally back above Monday’s highs, and still closed under the morning’s low. Wednesday’s flat open also immediately rallied, but ended the morning under the morning’s lows (and ended the session even lower).
Now comes this morning’s gap up. Extending higher post-open was not immediate, as much time was spent ranging around the 1993.50 bias-up signal. Finally extending higher did quickly fulfill its 1999.50 bias-up target. But almost as quickly price has returned to the open’s 1991.25 lows. And lower to 1989.50.
All of which is still in positive territory. Well into positive territory.
However, the bias environment was exited back under its fulfilled bias-up signal. That’s not in itself a signal, but it does suggest that another rally leg will require forming another pattern and triggering it.
Otherwise, probing under yesterday’s lows down to 1979.00-1980.00 remains possible. Recovering 1993.50 and triggering the 1995.50 bias-up could leave behind fresh lows until Friday afternoon.
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2003.25 | 1995.50 |
| …would target | 2009.50 | 2002.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1995.50 | 1988.00 |
| …would target | 1990.50 | 1982.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS -UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… All gapped up and nowhere to go.
Not extending the gap up.
Gapping up above 1995.50-1998.50 would have negated the traction yesterday’s decline had gained.The open gapped up to this morning’s 1993.50 bias-up signal, and ranged choppily around it, but didn’t probe above 1995.50 until the first 15 minutes had almost lapsed.
Suspicious.
Bias-up did trigger. And dipping under it at 10:30 was still overlapping it, which doesn’t qualify for rejecting the 10:15 signal. And now a fresh post-open high is testing 1998.50.
The 1999.50 bias-up target may still be met. And may be probed up to 2002.00. But holding that gain would be questionable.