S&P
The First Trade… At least there’s a parade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
.Friday’s session ranged sideways widely, probing fresh highs above last month’s 2011.75 prior high and retesting 2000.00 as support. But the close was essentially flat-to-positive above 2006.00, and no traction was gained either way
Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping down slightly Sunday night then rallied gradually until touching Friday’s 2012.50 high coming out of Europe’s opens. A quick reaction down from there has been ranging more narrowly around unchanged at 2006.00-2007.00.
If, then…
Today is a Federal holiday that closes banks and bond markets. This reduces participation and liquidity, and therefore also volatility. Trending is difficult to get started, but also difficult to stop once begun. Probing last month’s prior highs more significantly remains likely up to 2019.50. But not with any particular timing, so today is vulnerable to anything.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1999.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2001.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2005.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2012.50 would be likely to trigger the 2011.00 bias-up signal… Remember that holding the test of a bias signal through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s buyers had gained traction, so strong hands knew the rally wasn’t reversing down. But typically they’re also rewarded for their, ahem, foresight. Yet neither Friday morning’s or afternoon’s bias environments trended up. Downside potential remains limited until probing higher highs — presumably up to 2019.50 since the attraction up to 2011.75 has been neutralized.
Monday’s government holiday introduces a wild card into the timing. But unless new objectives are created along the way, fresh highs is the next opportunity to end what is approaching a two-week old corrective rally.
Details and other markets coverage INCLUDING BIGGER PICTURE are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkcczc
- There’s no Saturday Review this weekend, but Bigger Picture was addressed in the video linked above.
- The chaRTroom will NOT be available for Sunday evening’s Globex open, not until after midnight due to travel.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.00 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2024.00 | 2016.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2009.00 | 2001.00 |
| …would target | 2004.00 | 1996.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Last chance to grab the golden ring.
Window re-opens for a rally leg.
The offsetting test of this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down signal was fulfilled while exiting the noon hour. Sellers haven’t had any other effect since then, and now the afternoon’s bias environment is almost finished lapsing.
A rally leg is vulnerable to extending higher so long as 2004.25 holds as support. Actually extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be very helpful confirmation. Regardless, the only unfinished business is above.
The decline is vulnerable to resuming, but there’s no inflection point to signal it. But probing under 1999.50 through 3:10-3:20 would be the last opportunity for sellers to be taken seriously today.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. BE SURE TO ATTEND OR TO WATCH TODAY’S POST-CLOSE MARKET WRAP FOR A BIGGER PICTURE REVIEW.
Daily Spot… Gold makes a break for it.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday filled the 1.1370 gap back up to prior highs. Closing above or below the gap for two consecutive sessions would be the first available signal of whether the break higher is durable, or else peaking..
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s FOMC reaction had ultimately resolved down to fill the gap back to Thursday’s open around 1137.50. Holding it would allow the rally to resume, which it did overnight by probing fresh highs up to 1159.00. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 1148.00 as support.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding the 15.55 pullback limit’s test Thursday still hasn’t resumed the rally, as Friday ranged widely around Thursday’s close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overnight bounce didn’t prevent Friday morning’s fresh lows, but the 156-16 sell signal held its test to avoid confirming the 157-24 sell signal’s break..
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Wednesday’s breakout did not equate to being a sell signal, but Friday’s probe of fresh highs held Thursday’s high to suggest that buyers have expended all available energy without gaining traction for the effort.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday morning’s subdued trading didn’t offer any strength to take credibly, perhaps because of the impending weekend. The same setup applies Monday, and early strength would be credible for extending higher intraday targeting 2.67.