S&P
Mid-day Update… Sellers done?
Fresh session lows are keeping alive volatility.
I had warned upon entering the noon hour that just ranging sideways in this pattern would quash any potential trending for the day. The noon hour did not maintain the range.
Probing fresh lows during the noon hour has extended down to satisfy the unfinished business below at this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down signal. It was just tested down to 1998.75.
Also being tested is this afternoon’s 1999.00 bias-down signal target. It’s not yet triggered exceeded with the bias timing window having arrived. No-bias A satisfied bias-down means the bias environment’s upper-end should be defined by its 2011.00 upper-end (bias-up signal) if tested. Back above 2001.75 would start to signal momentum is reversing up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 12, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Treasury futures trade on Monday, but not bonds themselves. The thinness inhibits its use for laying off risk, which inhibits stock market participation. So, the mid-morning Fed speaker’s comments might impact price more greatly than normal.
US Holiday: Columbus Day
Markets Open, Banks Closed
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:30 AM ET
Lael Brainard Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.25 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2024.00 | 2016.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2012.25 | 2004.25 |
| …would target | 2007.25 | 1999.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Thin air.
Rally tries to resume, but fails..
The pre-open rally to 2014.00 had reacted down to 2016.00 into the open. A post-open bounce to 2012.25 has reacted down to 2002.50.
Along the way, the 2011.75 attraction above was retested intraday for the first time. The 2011.00 bias-up signal was also tested, and rejected through 10:15.
This is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of one bias signal, an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal is in-play at the 1999.50 bias-down signal. This will delay rewarding yesterday’s buyers until this afternoon, which is today’s second likeliest scenario.
That attraction below at 1999.50 can be avoided by exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2011.00 bias-up signal without having probed any lower after 10:15. Otherwise, that 1999.50 attraction becomes “unfinished business below.”
So long as this morning’s weakness (ranging narrowly around unchanged is weakness?) doesn’t evolve into a deeper downleg, this morning’s backing-and-filling should recover this afternoon to probe fresh highs.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The pre-open recovery has extended to fresh highs, and also through the 2011.75 attraction to 2014.00. The 2011.00 bias-up signal (+/- 3 ticks) seems to be the bullish line in the sand whose recovery when it matters will matter a lot, with the next higher objective being 2019.50. Not recovering the 2011.00 area would suggest backing-and-filling this morning to delay rallying until the afternoon. I’m not a seller in positive territory, but exiting the open in negative territory would suggest testing the 1999.50 bias-down signal ahead.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyftyjs