S&P

Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)

By Rod David | October 5, 2015 - 5:16 pm

So, Friday’s recovery was not an anomaly. It was extended Sunday night and throughout Monday. It’s also not a novelty, since it didn’t launch from trend lows but from a pullback. Vulnerability to a corrective pullback increases when buyers don’t gain traction for their efforts, as with Monday afternoon. Gapping up would signal instead that the rally had attracted new sponsorship without need of a correction.

Assuming no gap down, the rally has now retraced into the orbit of last month’s FOMC announcement. Overbought RSIs at its 2011.75 high are an attraction. A pullback first could be triggered under 1972.00 and have room down to 1956.00. So long as 1960.00 holds through the close, the trend remains up.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfykxhh

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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Posted in Market Wrap, S&P

Pre-close View… No traction.

By Rod David | October 5, 2015 - 3:25 pm

That doesn’t dismiss fresh highs.

This afternoon’s 1968.75 bias-up signal triggered and its 1974.50 bias-up target was met. It was exceeded upon exiting the bias environment on the way up to 1979.25.

Choppiness there has fluctuated down to 1975.00. I’m suspicious of it being able to reverse the trend down. Any lower will have earned a deeper pullback to at least test 1969.00.

The rally may yet resume back above 1978.00. Meanwhile, a deeper slide to 1969.00 is possible.

Posted in Pre-close View, S&P

Daily Spot… Bonds — buy-bye?

By Rod David | October 5, 2015 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reaction down from probing the 1.1265 bounce limit extended down Monday through the 1.1213 sell signal to put into play fresh lows targeting 1.1045 and potentially also 1.0900. A second consecutive lower close under 1.1190 would confirm.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending its pullback to test 1130.00 Monday morning was quickly recovered back above 1133.50 to suggest the rubber band was snapping back up to resume the rally. But a second consecutive higher close didn’t confirm the breakout underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up and extending sharply higher Monday now requires that pullbacks hold 15.55 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
After closing Friday while testing Thursday’s high, gapping down Monday within Friday’s range doesn’t require filling the gap back up to Friday’s close before extending down, which is suggested by closing under 157-24.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Surging above 46.00 through Monday’s open attacked 47.00, but didn’t signal the trend breaking higher. The ongoing narrow consolidation remains vulnerable to breaking lower, initially targeting 42.80 and potentially probing last month’s lows.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday avoided piercing any prior low and only ranged flat-to-higher. Early above 2.48 Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday, so long as 2.44 were to hold any test as support.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot

Mid-day Update… Nothing left up that sleeve.

By Rod David | October 5, 2015 - 1:08 pm

Sponsorship to extend higher must make itself obvious soon.

Exceeding the 1960.00 objective has spent the morning trending higher. That doesn’t yet confirm a bigger rally is underway targeting a complete retracement of the August FOMC reaction’s 2011.75 high — but it’s a start.

Confirmation still could go a little further. Near-term, that would be to trigger this afternoon’s bias-up and extend higher so a late-afternoon drop has room to be absorbed reaction down. Or at the close, maintain the recovery above 1960.00.

Sponsorship for extending higher is needed. Because the morning’s rally has satisfied all other objectives that developed along the way: The structural requirement to probe above the open’s 1968.25 highs, the pattern’s likelihood to reject the shallow false break lower. Swing measurements targeting 1969.50.

Exceeding 1970.50 now should also trigger the 1968.75 bias-up signal at 1:20. Probably not back under 1966.50, and even less so under 1960.00.

Posted in Mid-day Update, S&P