S&P
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1978.75 | 1968.75 |
| …would target | 1984.50 | 1974.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1969.25 | 1959.25 |
| …would target | 1963.75 | 1953.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers seeing red.
Post-open action is all about extending the rally.
Opening at 1956.00 didn’t even hint at reversing down. And soon the hours-long consolidation was breaking higher to eventually attack 1967.00. Its reaction to news dipped down momentarily to 1962.00, and now fresh highs are testing 1968.00.
Any reaction down this morning is likely only temporary. That said, back under 1963.75 would target 1956.00. It would be easier to recover so long as its origin isn’t within view of the bias environment starting to lapse
CAVEAT: There has yet to be a close above the rally’s 1960.00 objective. And this morning’s complex uptrending will have fulfilled most requirements of Friday’s buyers having gained traction. So, delaying a break lower until this afternoon could be much more productive.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Greeting the week with extreme sentiment has doubled-down (or doubled-up, depending upon your perspective) by coming within 3 ticks of the 1960.00 objective’s resistance. Testing it post-open and reacting back down under 1956.00 would signal the morning’s likelihood for trending back down, at least backing-and-filling. Recovering 1957.25-1960.00 through the open could duplicate much of Friday afternoon’s rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpfjyb
The First Trade… Not beat-skipping
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Plunging on Friday’s pre-open payrolls report was sponsored by strong hands. We know this because the open maintained a gap down under Thursday afternoon’s 1891.50 low to 1883.00. But the “session-long decline” setup it had triggered was never any more productive before inverting through the bias environment’s exit. The balance of the session fulfilled that inversion above and beyond its minimum requirement — not only filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 1913.50 close, but also retracing the pre-open plunge’s 1928.50 origin, and then probing even higher to attack 1944.00. Buyers gained traction thanks to trending up through the 3:10-3:20 window to confirm the bias environment having been exited above the noon hour’s high.
Overnight action’s new info…
The prior session ended by testing 1942.00 resistance, but Sunday night’s initial weakness held 1937.00 while consolidating into midnight. A break higher was retraced back into the consolidation, and then high, now attacking 1958.00.
If, then…
Closing above the 1942.00 resistance would have put into play the next higher objective at 1960.00. Overnight action is posturing the open to potentially satisfy it. Like closing at an objective, the next timing window can extend higher if the reaction is limited in both duration and depth. But gapping up without an interim pullback from having closed AT an objective is difficult to extend higher, and at least a pullback is likelier. Especially on Mondays, when greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. So, extending higher this morning depends upon extending higher with hardly any hesitation.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1953.00 would be likely also to maintain the recovery above the 1948.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1952.75 | 1942.75 |
| …would target | 1958.00 | 1948.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1943.75 | 1933.75 |
| …would target | 1936.75 | 1926.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.