S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Setups reflect sponsorship taking control. If they’ve done everything necessary, and still don’t succeed, that’s not a failure — it’s the opposing sponsorship taking control instead.
Exiting Friday morning’s bias environment 20 points off its 1883.00 low wasn’t itself the reason for the “session-long decline” failing. And it was no reason why its inversion couldn’t still be productive. The inverted setup could have only ranged flat-to-higher, but it doubled the initial 20-point recovery, and then added another 20 points on top.
And there’s room for yet another 20 points, but no requirement, since the next higher corrective bounce potential was met and held at 1942.00. Not already retesting Tuesday’s low has affected the corrective bounce’s consequences. Some details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvrwf
Join us in the Saturday Review for more discussion of the corrective bounce, the “session-long” setup, and possible Sunday night and Monday morning price action. It begins at 9:30am ET, and I’ll send access instructions before then.
Pre-close View… The rest is on the house.
Minimum objective is fulfilled.
The inverted session-long decline’s requirements are similar to the session-long rally: Each timing window probing its prior timing window’s high, with one exception.
Today’s exception was the afternoon’s bias environment. The final hour just probed above its high. It’s probing fresh highs, too.
Higher highs aren’t required. They’re likely, but likelier on any day other than Fridays because of the oddities of Friday afternoons. Risk of reversing down can’t be dismissed, not as much buying pressure that was expended already, with no requirement above and weekend illiquidity ahead.
Meanwhile, the 3:10-3:20 timing window just trended up above prior highs, after the bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high. Buyers gained traction for their efforts. That’s less reliable on a Friday, but it does warn to be cautious if selling.
Daily Spot… Bond or bust.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break wasn’t confirmed Thursday, but Friday’s spike up on payrolls didn’t hold its probe above 1.1265. Fresh lows remain in-play, especially so long as 1.1213 is now broken as support.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A little extra dose of pessimism further under 1117.00 ahead of Friday’s Employment report facilitated a spike up to attack 1141.50, proving the pullback had ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up Friday morning and extending higher to test 15.25 raised the pullback limit to 15.10 to maintain the pullback has reversed up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking up on Friday’s payrolls report to 160-20 was retraced back down to the 158-18 prior highs, now raising the actionable sell signal to a close under 157-24.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s choppiness may have been a warning shot at the growing likelihood for breaking lower to and probably through 42.80.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh low didn’t extend, but it’s premature for Monday to offer a reversal setup.
Mid-day Update… Inversion, indeed.
Session-long decline inverts and then some.
This morning’s bias environment began lapsing above the “session-long decline” signal, and held up into noon. This is without the morning’s bias environment having probed a fresh low. Consequently, the session-long decline inverted.
Each remaining timing window with one exception should probe above its prior timing window’s high.
The noon hour’s 1905.00 entry took that to heart and rallied 15 points. Its exit extended 6 points higher to 1926.50. That raises the bar on subsequent timing windows. In fact, the current afternoon bias environment has dipped to 1917.00.
Only one timing window remains, so it should probe above the bias environment’s 1924.50 high (notice that’s not a new session high, just above its prior timing window’s high). Nothing in particular must happen after that.
The bias environment hasn’t yet lapsed, and may yet probe a fresh high. If so, then the last timing window would have no requirement — and it would be free to decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 5, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar is unusually busy for a Monday. That’s in addition to containing two reports with reliable track records for influencing price action.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET