S&P
Pre-close View… A longer temporary.
Sellers still not back in charge.
Sellers did only one thing today. It was pretty big, but their timing marginalized that thing’s relevant. And buyers are exploiting it.
Sellers absorbed the massive gap up and post-open rally. The morning’s probes of fresh highs all overlapped 1904.75 without extending above it. They were rewarded by a reaction down to within 2 ticks of this afternoon’s 1886.00 bias-down target.
But the downlegs timing didn’t reflect strong hands.
Reacting down from the morning’s high didn’t break the relevant 1892.00 level until after the bias environment had lapsed. Testing both of the afternoon’s bias-down parameters was recovered before the 1:20 bias signal triggered. Even no-bias trending above the afternoon’s bias-up signal was retraced well before its extension would have carried a much harsher penalty than just dipping back down to 1899.75.
It’s getting a little late for any new trending, but the reward is fresh highs and potentially 1909.75. Reacting down could be productive, but probably not durable.
Daily Spot… Grab Gold?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having gone out Tuesday still testing the 1.1265 bounce limit, gapping down Wednesday suggests the outstanding objectives to fresh lows are back in-play.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down $6 to 1120.50 Wednesday quickly extended down to the 1117.00 target. It was probed intraday under 1111.00, but the close was back to testing 1117.00 as resistance. Closing lower Thursday would target new lows, but the pullback has otherwise ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh relative lows intraday Wednesday still managed to recover back up to 14.50 to avoid putting into play fresh lows under 14.20.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday similarly to Tuesday resolved differently, at least so far, but not recovering to fresh highs. Just consolidating narrowly barely avoided actually filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, but clearly avoided triggering the 156-16 sell signal.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow flat ranging in the wake of Tuesday’s post-close API data and Wednesday morning’s EIA report doesn’t reflect strength. But neither is it any more predictive than the pattern already in-play, and looking for 42.80 below.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ending Tuesday by still only overlapping last Thursday’s 2.59 low hardly inhibited Wednesday from extending down much more deeply to test 2.51. This new low is not greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Waiting for word from on high.
Wide swings ahead of Yellen.
Buyers have been productive, but they haven’t gained traction. First, this morning’s probes of higher and higher highs each overlapped the 1904.75 objective that was next in-line above 1997.00-1999.00.
At least its eventual reaction down avoided probing under the morning’s 1892.00 bias-up target until after the bias environment had lapsed. It was still probed, considerably, to within 2-3 ticks of this afternoon’s 1886.00 bias-down target. But the next bias timing window was exited back above the bias-down signal — coincidentally, also 1892.00.
Now another bounce is exploiting that late unsustained selling, now testing 1902.00. But this is the second instance of productive buying, which isn’t gaining traction. Being a no-bias environment, its range should be defined by its bias signals. And since 1899.75 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal, probing above it should be retraced.
Actually, the afternoon’s 1899.75 bias-up signal is being retraced now. Often, the consequence of probing it prematurely also includes retracing the 1:20 print — that’s 1895.50.
Back under 1898.25 would target 1895.50. It would also create potential for retesting the noon hour’s lows, and lower. Retracing all of the rally from yesterday’s low isn’t required today, but it is required.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 1, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy ahead of Friday payrolls report. Three of Thursday’s reports might offer some glimpse into it, depending on whether they reinforce or undermine Wednesday’s ADP miss. Meanwhile, note that the 9:45 and 10:00 reports are more vulnerable to reacting similarly to any reaction that was triggered by the pre-open reports.
Lael Brainard Speaks
Wed 7:00 PM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1910.00 | 1899.75 |
| …would target | 1914.75 | 1904.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1902.00 | 1892.00 |
| …would target | 1096.25 | 1886.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.