S&P
Pre-market Tour (NO recording & summary)
The overnight rally’s test of 1900.00 has reacted down to 1894.00. Will 1897.00-1899.00 resistance be tested during the open? Exceeding it at 9:45, or not, would indicate whether sellers were retaking control. If they do, it’s probably that — not just buyers hesitating, but yesterday’s sellers being rewarded for having gained traction. Trending up through the open and recovering any resistance tested would delay that drop in favor of extending the overnight bounce.
[There is no recording today due to operator error — sorry!]
The First Trade… One-way street.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
For never committing either way, Tuesday’s session ranged widely. The first hour offered a glimpse by its opening dip to fresh lows at 1866.00 which then reacted up to 1890.00. Trending down through the noon hour was corrected during the bias environment, and then extended to even lower lows until the last half-hour. The lowest low stopped 2 ticks optimistically short of touching the 1861.00 overnight low before reacting up. The impatient buying persisted, extending the reaction up to the 1877.00 bias environment exit.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s sellers had gained traction by entering the final hour under bias environment low, and then extending through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. But the evening’s 7-point dip to 1871.00 reacted up sharply, and extensively. Last week’s 1897.00-1899.00 lows are now being probed above 1900.00.
If, then…
Whatever traction gained by yesterday afternoon’s sellers can be rendered moot by a gap up maintained above the session’s 1890.00 high and by trending up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Failing either condition still might not reverse back down immediately, but extending any higher would be only temporary. Extending higher only temporarily can still be pretty productive, up to 1904.75 or to 1915.00 — retesting yesterday’s lows from too high and after too long would find expended buyers unable to prevent a deeper decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1897.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1892.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up signal is next targeting 1899.00.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s late bounce from the 1861.50 low extended up to the 1877.00 bias environment exit. That’s natural resistance and there’s nothing unnatural about testing it before resuming the decline.
Of course, extending the late rally makes it easier to recover higher levels that would delay rewarding Tuesday’s sellers for gaining traction. The burden of that proof is on buyers. Meanwhile, the late bounce essentially expended all possible buying pressure during a window when it could not gain traction for the effort. That’s the stuff of weak hands, like the impatient buyers that caused the afternoon’s drop to stop optimistically short of touching the overnight low 2 ticks lower. And that’s bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Rewarding Tuesday’s sellers can begin overnight, within limitations. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpbzcz
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1896.00 | 1886.00 |
| …would target | 1902.00 | 1892.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1877.50 | 1867.50 |
| …would target | 1872.00 | 1862.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… That’s leaving a mark.
Final hour trending to new post-open extreme.
2:30’s 1877.00 print wasn’t necessarily contained within the noon hour’s range, but bias environment exit was overlapping the noon hour’s high instead of exceeding it. Anyway, its surge up to 1879.00 reacted down sharply to enter the final hour under the noon hour’s 1868.50 low.
Along came the tie breaker, i.e. the 3:10-3:20 timing window, which broke under the morning’s 1865.75 low. Sellers gained traction.
That extended down to 1861.50. If sellers got ahead of themselves, then they did a good job of correcting it, stopping optimistically short of touching the overnight low within 2 ticks, and reacting up to the 1877.00 bias environment exit — natural resistance.
Absent gapping up above today’s 1886.00 and 1889.75 highs, tomorrow morning is likely to probe under today’s lows.