S&P
Mid-day Update… Landlocked.
No Island, but a lot of traversing.
Having touched the 1938.25 bias-up signal, back under 1937.00 and 1935.00 reversed momentum down. The morning’s 1924.00 bias-down signal wasn’t yet touched when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, so its eventual test wasn’t required to hold. Its test has extended down to 1921.75.
Not rallying quickly at the open meant today was likely to back-and-fill into yesterday’s range. Its lower prior highs have been tested (they’re still being tested). There’s no lower objective, but breaking lower now would be likely to probe under yesterday’s low.
Otherwise, this being the range’s lower-end, bouncing back to or toward yesterday’s highs is now likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 24, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Durable Goods has a reliable track record of influencing price action. It’s released simultaneously with Jobless Claims and an otherwise irrelevant Fed survey. The post-open housing sector report can influence price action if it’s strong.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1941.00 | 1929.75 |
| …would target | 1946.25 | 1935.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1933.00 | 1921.75 |
| …would target | 1927.75 | 1916.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dancing on the head of a pin.
Trying to fluctuate away from unchanged.
This morning’s first several minutes ranged around 1930.75. A dip to 1926.00 was recovered enough and in time to overlap 1930.75 at 10:00. It was still being overlapped at 10:15. That’s a relevant level since it was yesterday’s opening print and its cash session close equivalent.
And three of the first hour’s five 15-miute checkpoints overlapped it. Which signals that this market does not want to trend.
Still, being a no-bias environment, there’s room to fluctuate between its 1924.00 and 1938.25 bias signals. The upper-end is being tested now. It’s too late to trigger, so exceeding the bias-up right now would be “no-bias trending” that must be retraced.
Otherwise, back under 1937.00 and 1935.00 would start to reverse momentum down, presumably targeting the range’s lower-end, potentially to 1922.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The pre-open rally has already tested the 1941.25 preliminary level. Its recovery through 9:45 would make the 1938.25 bias-up signal likely to trigger. We’ll see. It became the head of a Head & Shoulders pattern that has reacted down to 1927.50. If not recovered quickly, then backing-and-filling into yesterday’s range becomes very likely, perhaps also attacking its lows. Details are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvmjrv