S&P
The First Trade… Where was that hiding?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s plunge under its intraday range down to 1910.50 had been reversed to probe above Tuesday’s highs up to 1941.75. Wednesday’s intraday action was contained almost entirely within Tuesday’s range. But that didn’t prevent its swings from being wide, peaking at 1938.50 and then dropping to 1920.50. It was only the late-afternoon window when volatility began to subside.
Overnight action’s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, but not — especially the sequence. Trending down 19 points probed under Wednesday afternoon’s low to 1917.00, to within 2 ticks of the bias-down target. It was recovered to probe above 5 ticks above Wednesday afternoon’s 1935.00 high. Just like Tuesday night, but in reverse… Oh, wait, then the market began a 28-point slide to fresh lows at 1907.50.
If, then…
Overnight action followed my prescription I had discussed yesterday — probing fresh lows didn’t have to extend, but was unlikely to extend, and likelier to recover into a rally. My treatment didn’t apply to reversing the recovery back down to probe even lower lows, substantially lower lows at that. Any bounce short of 19240.00 or 1927.25 would remain vulnerable to reversing back down. Bouncing back only to the range’s 1920.50 lower-end would more likely refuel a much deeper drop, even if that bounce were entirely pre-open.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1918.00 would be likely also to recover the 1916.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 1912.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal at 10:15.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
[Click here for the morning Bias Parameters]
The only opportunity for Wednesday to trend was late-afternoon. But that window least resembled trending, compared to the other wide intraday swings. Essentially being an inside day and having gained no traction, Wednesday’s session didn’t offer any clues going forward. Nothing prevents Thursday’s open from trying to resolve down, but recovering intraday from a lower probe could be very bullish into and out of the weekend. Not recovering from probing lower could be quite the opposite.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyffrs
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1945.00 | 1933.75 |
| …would target | 1950.25 | 1939.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1933.00 | 1921.75 |
| …would target | 1927.75 | 1916.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… The trend is our lost friend.
Decent-sized swings continue within the range.
The only concern we discussed during the pre-market Tour about today’s session was the likelihood it wouldn’t trend. That was an important topic, since rallying 31 points overnight from low-to-high was teasing at extending.
In fact, several relatively sizable swings have developed intraday. One no-bias environment after another hasn’t convinced price action to sit still. And they’ve mostly been predictable — including the afternoon’s no-bias trending above its bias-up signal, and its required failure.
That requirement below has been fulfilled. We had expected that any trending today would develop late-afternoon, if at all. It’s late-afternoon. Extending above 1930.00 would target an attack on 1935.00. Extending any higher through 3:10-3:20 would reflect buyers gaining traction.
Otherwise, no further trending-like behavior is required today — there would be vulnerability to retesting the afternoon lows, but no predictive signal.
Daily Spot… Ranges setting in?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce obviously didn’t fulfill Monday’s confirmed breakout which now requires at least an eventual third lower close under Tuesday’s low.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday peaked upon testing the decline’s bounce limit, only ranging sideways intraday, and unlikely to resume the rally without another dip first.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-narrow ranging Wednesday increased the likelihood for at least a slightly lower low testing 14.65.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s “ineffectually optimistic” retest of resistance above 156-00 was retraced Wednesday down to 154-22, which is still short of the gap back down to 153.24 but still confirms resistance isn’t ready to break higher.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s EIA report kept price under pressure attacking 44.50, and certainly not resuming or extending the rally.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially dipping at Wednesday’s open extended the narrow sideways ranging at the lows without signaling any rally soon.