S&P
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1998.50 | 1988.25 |
| …would target | 1996.25 | 1995.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1091.00 | 1980.75 |
| …would target | 1985.50 | 1975.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hunkering down.
Post-open ranging not getting any takers.
Perhaps the prior two days’ pattern will repeat again today. They began trending up after a no-bias or noN-bias had been signaled. And their delay was compensated by trending up sharply.
Now this morning’s open has avoided triggering a bias, firming from 1980.50 up to 1986.50, centered around yesterday’s 1984.50 cash session close.
Late trending at all would still comply with the pattern of late trending — it can be downward and not necessarily up. But trending isn’t necessary at all, paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events.
Post-open Review… Tipping point.
Bouncing back up to 1987.00 still resolved down to fresh lows at 1980.25. Regardless of reacting up a little pre-open, that doesn’t change the potential for rallying post-open. Quickly recovering 1985.00 would still make the bias-up signal likelier to be tested, if not also triggered. Otherwise, not quickly rallying, or still hovering at or around pre-open lows, would be more vulnerable to an actual morning pullback. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjsxfk
The First Trade… Pins AND needles.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s noN-bias environment extended higher nonetheless, lifting off from the 1970.00 area through its 1977.00 target. The afternoon fulfilled potential to 1985.00 up to 1987.00. The close triggered a bullish WedEX. But buyers didn’t gain traction for the effort — in fact, the bias environment exit was under the noon hour’s low. A post-close surge touched 1989.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy flat-to-lower ranging has worked its way down to 1981.00 That slightly overlaps the highs of both yesterday morning’s bias environments, while dipping under the noon hour’s 1983.50 highs.
If, then…
The rally satisfied 1977.00 and 1985.00 targets yesterday. Not in the same timing window, and not without a corrective dip between them, but in the same session anyway. So much buying pressure satisfied so recently should naturally devolve into a pullback, even in the most bullish scenario. Anxiousness ahead of FOMC statements can cause a defensive pullback in a hesitating environment. So, it might seem a likely catalyst to profit-taking when there are such great profits to take. Perhaps. But yesterday’s targets were less a product of fulfilling previous optimism, and more of position-jockeying ahead of expiration. No doubt, the recovery is extended, but it’s vulnerable to becoming more extended. Delaying a logical pullback much past the open could spark a counter-intuitive upleg into noon. I’ll be prepared for a morning pullback if that’s indicated, but the market seems intent upon greeting this afternoon’s FOMC events optimistically.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1985.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1988.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1989.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1978.00 would be likely to trigger the 1979.50 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1998.50 | 1988.25 |
| …would target | 2005.25 | 1995.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1089.75 | 1979.50 |
| …would target | 1082.50 | 1972.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.