S&P
Post-market Wrap… Non-stop.
Even after satisfying potential to 1985.00 and hovering there through Wednesday’s cash session close, a post-close surge touched 1989.00. I had cautioned much earlier not to underestimate the upside momentum. The rally has been sponsored by position jockeying ahead of Friday’s expiration. Excessive optimism just wasn’t a concern. Mechanics will always win out over sentiment.
Sometimes mechanics can become extended, too. Closing AT 1985.00 instead of above it, or below it without yet satisfying it, doesn’t require extending higher. And Wednesday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction to earn the same reward that Wednesday owed to Tuesday afternoon’s buyers.
Meanwhile, having triggered a bullish WedEX, the rally could afford to rest on its laurels and allow a pullback Thursday morning. It’s the last opportunity for unsponsored price action, ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Extending higher anyway or eventually would next target 1996.00 and potentially 2020.00.
Details (yes, there’s still details) and other markets coverage (yes, there’s other markets) were discussed during the post-market Wrap here:
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This evening, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:
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Pre-close View… Still holding up.
The bias environment’s dip to 1975.00 was almost 9 points under the noon hour’s exit. That was the only consequence of not triggering this afternoon’s 1978.50 bias-up signal, despite having probed above it to 1983.75.
As if that consequence wasn’t limited enough, now the high has been retested. And the potential to 1985.00 has been fulfilled within 3 ticks.
Back under 1980.50 would signal momentum reversing down to fresh afternoon lows. But I would continue to caution against getting very bearish very quickly, because a lot of this is driven by expiration, which can have more staying power than sentiment.
Daily Spot… Gold gets going.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
One last blip-down at Wednesday’s open may have marked the end of digesting last week’s confirmed breakout. Quickly recovering into positive territory can now extend higher without further delay to produce at least a third higher close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s 61.8% retracement of the recovery from the 1098.40 target proved a launching pad for Wednesday rocketing through 1111.00 and sharply higher to attack 1124.00. The rally remains intact and targeting 1141.50 so long as pullbacks hold 1114.50
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday from 14.35 support extended higher through 14.65 resistance to fresh highs attacking 15.00. The rally targeting 15.35 remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 14.80.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s plunge through its 153-12 objective ranged narrowly Wednesday under prior lows, still having potential for extending down to 151-30 unless 152-30 were recovered.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Days of narrowly ranging flat-to-lower above support reacted up sharply on Wednesday’s EIA report. But closing above 46.00 only stretches the rubber band to snap back down if there’s no second consecutive higher close Thursday.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not confirming Monday’s close above 2.77 on Tuesday extended down deeper Wednesday, for what could be a healthy and constructive retest 61.8% back into the prior channel at 2.68. But that extended down to 2.65, the maximum weakness without actually reversing the trend down. Closing above the channel would have greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, but this is not necessarily a position of weakness.
Stretching optimism.
Bullish can mean there’s room for a pullback.
This morning’s noN-bias environment extended above its 1972.00 bias-up signal before the bias environment began lapsing. And it extended quickly. So quickly that this morning’s 1977.00 bias-up target was exceeded at the bias environment’s exit.
The noon hour extended even higher to 1983.75, where both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged negatively. Reacting down overlapped the 1979.50 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. The bias signal barely avoided triggering.
The expectation for probing above 1985.00 remains intact. It’s this afternoon’s bias-up target, and bias-up wasn’t rejected so decisively as to prevent one more fresh high. Back above 1980.25 would be credible for starting that move — above 1985.00 would target 1996.00 — as expiration’s influence seem one-sided.
But having come already within 5 ticks of fulfilling 1985.00 on the same leg that fulfilled 1977.00, beware of a deeper pullback. That’s still likely only to refuel buyers for higher highs, but the buying that’s not position-jockeying ahead of expiration is optimism, and that’s getting a little stretched.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 17 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Busy calendar, influential reports, FOMC policy statement in the afternoon to keep markets anxious — what else could Thursday’s session offer? Well, it’s the quarterly FOMC meeting, followed by Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. Oh, in case you haven’t heard, suddenly people have been talking about a possible rate hike.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
**FOMC Policy Statement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
**Fed Chair Quarterly Press Q&A
2:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET