S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1989.75 | 1979.50 |
| …would target | 1986.25 | 1985.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1982.00 | 1971.75 |
| …would target | 1976.50 | 1966.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, and holding out.
Probing above the overnight highs.
Greeting the open at 1971.00 had ranged 1968.50-1974.25 during the first 3 minutes. Dipping to a fresh low at 1967.00 on news was largely recovered.
But the 1972.00 bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 10:30. Bias-up did not trigger, nor was it rejected for a no-bias.
This is a noN-bias environment. Bias parameters are still support and resistance, but not predictive. The bias-up target isn’t in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.
Often, noN-bias environments fluctuate around the untriggered bias signal. Essentially, a “dry cleaners” morning, better devoted to running errands than to navigating choppy and unreliable price action.
Often isn’t always. And the reward of probing fresh highs happens to be due to yesterday afternoon’s buyers for having gained traction. So, there’s at least potential to trend up, but no requirement this morning.
Pre-market Tour… Trying to rock the boar.
Overnight ranging persists into the open. No unfinished business below or other lower attraction is in-play to prevent a rally beginning quickly to reward yesterday’s buyers for having gained traction. So, delaying an obvious rally would start making the morning increasingly vulnerable to backing-and filling, and likely to delay the rally until this afternoon. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htprpcs
The First Trade… Steady as she goes.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s rally developed after the open had held the 1950.50 biias-up signal. The no-bias trending was invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the 1955.50 bias-up target. That tends to reflect serious intent, and a mid-day running correction resolved by surging up to 1973.00. Buyer had gained traction already before the close softened to 1967.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping initially to 1962.75 was recovered 10 points to within 1 tick of yesterday’s 1973.00 high. Another dip attacking 1964.00 is now recovering back to 1970.00.
If, then…
Gaining traction is usually rewarded by trending the next morning, or after being delayed until the afternoon, in either case targeting 1977.00 and 1185.00. The overnight ranging keeps alive the potential for a post-open rally. Expiration’s influences are keeping things lively, and a morning pullback could attack yesterday’s 1957.50 noon hour low. That would have to be done early to maintain its potential for being only a detour, and not a deeper drop targeting 1950.50 or lower.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1964.00 would be likely to trigger the 1966.50 bias-down signal. Already under 1957.50 at 9:45 would be likely also to exceed the 1959.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1970.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1982.50 | 1972.00 |
| …would target | 1987.25 | 1977.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1976.75 | 1966.50 |
| …would target | 1970.25 | 1959.75 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.