S&P
Post-market Wrap… Still some breadcrumbs on the table.
Tuesday’s buyers gained traction for their efforts — the bias environment was exited at 2:30 above the noon hour’s range, and the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s range. That tends to be rewarded by trending higher through the following morning.
That said, that’s not how a similar template was rewarded last Tuesday. Its afternoon bias environment was exited above its bias-up target despite being a no-bias environment. which is what happened this Tuesday morning. Last week’s situation might have been exacerbated by trending up already overnight. Similar action in this setup would target 1977.00 and 1985.00.
Backing-and-filling overnight down to 1964.00 would still be likely to resolve up Wednesday. And if not recovering into a morning rally, then an afternoon rally would be likely, still targeting 1977.00 and 1985.00. Looming ahead is the WedEX indicator and Thursday’s impending FOMC statement. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmmsmmj
After 6:30pm ET, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Bucking the trend change.
The morning surged. Not throughout the bias environment, but the surge held up. The bias environment was exited with a last blip-down to 1956.00, which recovered up to 1962.00 during the noon hour. That formed a running correction.
Surging into a running correction is one thing. Surging into a running correction and then surging out of it is another. Those there stages are often followed by a fourth stage that plateaus.
Despite triggering its 1962.00 bias-up signal, this afternoon’s bias environment formed a plateau, while fulfilling its 1969.25 bias-up target. That’s four stages, and the fifth stage is very reliable for trending.
In which direction is a different matter.
Entering the noon hour above 1970.00 would suggest the plateau had given way to another rally leg. Back under 1966.75 would be likelier to retrace the running correction, or lower.
Probing 1970.00 10 minutes before the final hour osprobing 6 ticks above the plateau. It gets every benefit of the doubt. But back under 1966.75 would signal momentum reversing down instead.
Daily Spot… Bonds better be a buy.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday didn’t really exploit its opportunity to back-and-fill after Thursday’s confirmed breakout. Tuesday exploited the opportunity just a little more.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down from attacking 1111.00 resistance Tuesday now creates a credible base for launching a durable rally leg, but the setup won’t tolerate much delay before resuming the decline instead.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging around 14.35 was unnecessary since its attraction below was neutralized already, but not necessarily bearish so long as rallying becomes obvious Wednesday without much further delay.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Unfinished business below at 153-12 was satisfied by Tuesday’s drop, which first reacted up from fulfilling the objective and then broke another point under it to 152-19. Holding 152-30 as resistance would allow the break to extend down to 151-30.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still avoiding a rally leg Tuesday is more relevant to the pattern than not yet extending down sharply, which the pattern is vulnerable to doing at any time.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a few cents higher overnight was retraced before Tuesday’s open, when a second consecutive higher close above 2.77 would confirm Monday’s breakout.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 16 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s CPI is high-profile and reliably influential to price action. The post-open housing sector data isn’t usually influential.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Wednesday Expiration (WedEX) Indicator
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1972.50 | 1962.00 |
| …would target | 1979.50 | 1969.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1963.00 | 1952.75 |
| …would target | 1957.50 | 1947.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.