S&P
Post-market Wrap… Still some patience to go.
Monday’s session similar to the prior several sessions, just in reverse, and in slow-motion.
Rather than test prior lows and then rally, Sunday night’s rally resolved into Monday’s testing of prior lows. And while testing prior lows eventually produced bounces, they were too gradual to accumulate momentum, which prevented an afternoon rally.
Rallying was also inhibited by thin participation during Rosh Hashanah worship services. That’s still a factor Tuesday morning, but much less so by the afternoon. Patience will be wearing thin with quarterly expiration just three days away, and the FOMC policy statement one day before that.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrzmzx
After 6:30pm ET, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Topical depression.
Simply describing the bias environment’s exit as being under the noon hour’s 1941.75 high leaves a lot of price action unrecognized. Three surges during the bias environment originated from under the noon hour’s 1941.75 high. One probed up to 1944.75 before reversing back under 1941.75.
But each surge’s probe was retraced deeper and deeper. And the bias environment began lapsing under the noon hour’s 1941.75 high. That last dip reacted up momentarily 3 points from 1939.00 to 1942.00.
Just entering the final hour back above the noon hour’s 1941.75 high would suggest that sellers are marginalized. The balance of the session could still gravitate slightly higher from lack of selling. Regardless, not already probing above the bias environment’s 1944.75 high through 3:10-3:20 would remain vulnerable to extending down.
Daily Spot… Setups across the board.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having confirmed Thursday’s breakout close that requires at least one eventual higher close, Monday was free to back-and-fill. There wasn’t much backing-and-filling, but the rally did pause.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Neutralizing the attraction below Friday at 1098.40 was still testing the prior low close, so the decline’s momentum isn’t yet signaled it has ended. Closing above 1111.00 would be a good first step, but it was only attacked Monday as resistance.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging held the 14.35 attraction below that had been neutralized finally Thursday. But a couple of closes above 14.65 is still needed to launch a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up again Monday held 155-12 resistance and ranged around Friday’s high, inhibited from extending higher with unfinished business outstanding below at last Wednesday’s 153-12 gap down. In fact, late-morning weakness extended down through the afternoon into negative territory.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s weakness attacking Wednesday night’s 43.35 low is the opposite price action needed to help ensure a retest of the highs above 50.00 is underway.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Has the ongoing narrow (but not narrowing) range finally broken out? Downtrending resistance at 2.72 was broken by Monday’s early firming that extended higher to 2.77 resistance. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 15 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s events start to get interesting Tuesday. The pre-open Retail Sales can be influential when it’s surprising. The Empire State survey is high-profile, but not influential, although anything is possible this week ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1958.00 | 1946.75 |
| …would target | 1964.75 | 1953.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1948.00 | 1936.75 |
| …would target | 1942.25 | 1931.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.