S&P
Post-open Review… Sellers already satiated.
Quickly neutralizing the downside.
The potential down to 1938.00-1939.00 was realized during the first half-hour’s dip to 1937.75. RSIs there were simultaneously oversold, so it will require a retest. But the 1942.50 bias-down signal was recovered through 10:15 to avoid triggering.
Probing again under 1942.50 failed to break lower through 10:30, so the no-bias signal was not invalidated. And offsetting test of the 1953.50 bias-up signal is in-play.
Officially.
Technically, since 1953.50 was attacked to within 3 ticks 1 minute before the open, the intraday crowd already has essentially tested it. But we’ll still give it a benefit of the doubt.
In fact, the bounce is now extending. It will be difficult to trend any more so today than Friday, especially with today being a religious holiday. Choppy ranging around unchanged may define the session.
Pre-market Tour… Au contraire.
Sunday night’s initial rally to attack 1965.00 had been retraced already to 1946.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. That 3-4 point probe into negative territory was quickly recovered to attack 1960.00, but now 1946.50 is being attacked again. And the open is only minutes away. Exiting the open any lower would essentially put into play 1938.00-1939.00, or at least utilize the room for noise back down there. Otherwise, suddenly rallying at the open would be credible for extending higher — tentatively credible, but credible. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbhmwh
The First Trade… Tempered enthusiasm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Friday to retest Wednesday and Thursday’s 1927.00 support once again held through a relevant timing window to establish the range’s lower-end. The balance of the session “rallied” to the pattern’s 1949.00-1950.00 objective — “rallied” to the degree that its intraday uptrend could be considered trending within a larger range.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open immediately resumed Friday’s rally, extending to 1964.00. But that soon peaked, and eventually reversed down to probe negative territory at 1946.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. That proved overly-cautious, as a quick recovery to attack 1960.00 has ranged choppily sideways since then.
If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts Friday, so extending higher immediately this morning requires gapping up. So, reacting down without reversing the trend helps to maintain the optimism. But if the rally isn’t resumed post-open, then that restrained optimism can quickly become pessimism and drive price back down to well within Friday’s range.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1955.50 would be likely also to trigger the 1953.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1946.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link.
L’shana Tovah! Don’t let me find out that you’re accessing my chaRTroom during tonight’s Rosh Hashana service. I’m not saying don’t do it. But don’t let me find out…
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/12/15) … Stability is not strength.
Another week gone by without resuming the decline. Intraday swings are narrowing, albeit still well beyond the norm. Price still hovering at the upper-end of the crash’s reaction. So, the bear market is done? Probably not, and there are two paths to resuming it. Meanwhile, this week offers several catalysts to keep volatility alive. Details were discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review, linked below.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BABA, GMCR, YHOO, NFLX, AMZN, AAPL, BT, CSCO, GLUU, MU
09/12/2015 09:31:47 David B: good morning
09/12/2015 09:32:00 Charlie: !Ola!
09/12/2015 09:32:26 Mark Glezer: gm
09/12/2015 09:45:25 Mark Glezer: is 1695 projected regardless of a potential break higher first?
09/12/2015 09:49:52 ljr: any clues for fed this week?
09/12/2015 09:53:19 ljr: and opex this week (prob too early to tell)…I will listen to recording
09/12/2015 09:55:33 David B: this is a strange week for the wed ex. jewish holidays mon and tues and fed decison on thursday. how do you think big money is positioned and would there be a higher probability of an inverted wed ex say on friday?
09/12/2015 09:55:36 MK: so basically chart is broken, but a lot of participents don’t know it yet
09/12/2015 09:55:56 MK: participants
09/12/2015 09:56:06 MK: pardon my spelling its early
09/12/2015 10:02:29 MK: yes
09/12/2015 10:02:30 MK: yes
09/12/2015 10:02:45 Mark Glezer: what gap would u like to fill?
09/12/2015 10:03:16 Bill G: Do you think we may be close to a change in mkt leadership? P erhaps energy, oil , commodities?
09/12/2015 10:03:52 David B: just curios what level would indicate a trend change to the upside?
09/12/2015 10:06:12 Mark Glezer: headlines scream $20
09/12/2015 10:09:39 Mark Glezer: BABA – agree with 50% drop suggested by Barron’s?
09/12/2015 10:13:03 David B: GMCR,YHOO
09/12/2015 10:16:01 Mark Glezer: yeah
09/12/2015 10:30:28 David B: NFLX,AMZN
09/12/2015 10:32:34 Josey: GLUU, MU
09/12/2015 10:32:50 Mark Glezer: can u actually ignore the spike with a flag?
09/12/2015 10:42:38 Rod David: m r: Following your comments on the inter-market comparison: Does that make NDX more vulnerable to even greater downside (as compared to the general market)?
09/12/2015 10:43:10 Mark Glezer: NFLX maybe
09/12/2015 10:43:25 Mark Glezer: no
09/12/2015 10:43:37 Mark Glezer: yeah
09/12/2015 10:43:39 Mark Glezer: k
09/12/2015 10:43:54 Mark Glezer: thx much
09/12/2015 10:44:13 David B: thanks
09/12/2015 10:45:02 Josey: TY